Kyle Lupas
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We have a loaded MLB slate to close out the weekend, and it begins in Cleveland at 11:35 am ET and ends in Boston for another edition of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. For my mega parlay I’ve homed in on 3 games including a couple of underdogs and a favorite on the run line.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Sunday.
Pirates ML (+100)
Cubs ML (+108)
Rangers -1.5 (-104)
Parlay odds: +716
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Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+100) over Baltimore Orioles
The Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in quite a funk, having won just once in their last 12 games. They’ll look to avoid being swept by the Orioles this afternoon as they finish up their 3-game set and turn the ball over to Mitch Keller. Keller has been stellar for the Pirates in his 5th season, pitching to a career-best 2.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while recording a quality outing in 6 of his last 7 starts, including a complete-game shutout against the Rockies last Monday. Most importantly, the Pirates tend to win when Keller is on the mound, as they’re 6-2 in games he’s started this season. Keller’s advanced metrics, including his 27.3% hard-hit rate, are just as impressive and I believe he could help right the ship this afternoon.
Keller is going to need some run support, however, and the Pirates offense has been non-existent for a considerable time. Over this 1-11 stretch, the Pirates have pushed across only 18 runs, which just isn’t going to cut it, regardless of who’s on the mound. The Pirates should have a favorable matchup, though, as the Orioles send out Kyle Gibson for his 9th start of the season. Gibson has never been a strikeout pitcher and has found success throughout his career when inducing soft contact. That hasn’t been the case this season, as Gibson’s 40.7% hard-hit rate in the highest of his career, while his 15.9% strikeout rate matches that of 2016. This matchup presents the best chance for Pittsburgh to get back on track and I like the price at plus-money. I’m backing the Pirates to finally break through.
Chicago Cubs ML (+108) over Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching staff has been relentless this season, boasting a 3.01 ERA and a league-best 3.14 FIP. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have led the way for Minnesota, but one pitcher not mentioned is Louie Varland. He is at the back end of the rotation and has split time between the Twins and their Triple-A affiliate. Varland hasn’t been all that impressive and his numbers in the minors this season are only slightly better than his figures with the Twins. Through 3 starts with Minnesota, Varland is pitching to a 4.32 ERA, and his advanced metrics are underwhelming. He has above-average strikeout material, but his 13% barrel rate is a great cause for concern.
The Cubs counter with Marcus Stroman, who has clearly found a home in Chicago. Stroman has gone from being an above-average pitcher in Toronto and New York to the ace of the Cubs’ rotation. He’s given us his best work yet this season, pitching to a career-best 2.28 ERA with a 2.4% barrel rate. Stroman has been a shining example of consistency as he’s gone at least 6 innings in 7 of his 8 starts, with his lone hiccup coming against the Dodgers on April 23, when he allowed 5 earned runs and gave up 3 homers. Stroman hasn’t given up any other homers on the year and has allowed a combined 7 earned runs in his other 7 starts. I’m taking the better pitcher in this contest and will back the Cubbies in Minnesota.
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (-104) over Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are a bad baseball team. So bad in fact, that at 9-32, they’re on pace for one of the worst records in baseball in the modern era. They’re on pace to not even break 40 wins, which has happened only 4 times since 1904, and that’s when the regular season had 151 games or less. Surprisingly, they find themselves in a rubber match with the Texas Rangers and a chance to win their second series of the season. However, it’s hard to have faith in a team with only 9 wins and a starting rotation with a combined ERA of 7.58.
Drew Rucinski takes the ball for Oakland in what has been a disastrous season for the 34-year-old right-hander. Rucinski has been a journeyman, going undrafted out of Ohio State, then playing 2 seasons of independent baseball before getting the call-up to the majors. He had short stints with the Angels, Twins and Marlins before playing 4 seasons in the KBO. The A’s have taken a chance on him this season, and things have not gone as planned. Through 3 starts, Rucinski has allowed 13 earned runs in just 14.1 innings of work and has an 8.2% strikeout rate. There’s nothing to suggest these numbers are going to improve anytime soon, and I think it’s going to be another long day for the A’s.
Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Texas for his 8th start of the year. Heaney hasn’t looked like the Los Angeles version of himself quite yet, pitching to a 5.25 and a 1.22 WHIP. However, I see him turning the corner, as opposing lineups are hitting just .211 against him, which is a career-best for Heaney. His ERA is also not a true reflection of his production as his season debut of 2.2 innings and 7 earned runs has drastically inflated the number. Heaney has already seen this A’s lineup once this year, and he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits across 6 innings in an 18-3 Rangers’ win. I like Heaney to turn in another quality outing and for the Rangers to cruise.
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