Caleb Wilfinger
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With a jam-packed slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Sunday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +700 payout at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Sunday.
Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
Nationals vs Phillies Over 9 (+100)
Diamondbacks vs Angels Under 8.5 (+100)
MLB parlay odds: +700
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Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100) over Kansas City Royals
To start off this mega parlay, I’m going with the Dodgers on the run line. On paper, it appears as if Brady Singer may have turned a corner. After all the Royals starter has only surrendered 11 runs over his last 5 outings. However, this Dodgers lineup is a completely different animal than that of the Rockies, Tigers or Guardians. In his last outing against a stout offense, Singer lasted just 4.1 innings against the Orioles while allowing 6 hits and 4 earned runs, including a home run. The Dodgers have scored 31 runs over their last 3 games and I don’t expect this red-hot offense to slow down anytime soon.
Los Angeles won’t need much run support to give Tony Gonsolin a solid cushion in this one. Outside of a poor start against the Giants on June 18, Gonsolin has been as consistent as ever, holding a 3.30 ERA and allowing just 6 ER in his last 4 starts away from Dodger Stadium. Expect the right-hander to attack the Royals lineup, which is one of the worst in baseball in most statistical categories, including OBP, SLG and OPS. Even away from home, this should be a routine win for the Dodgers.
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Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Over 9 (+100)
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the over in this NL East matchup between the Nationals and Phillies. The starting pitching matchup leaves a bit to be desired, as we’ll see Trevor Williams get the start for Washington, while Ranger Suarez gets the ball for Philadelphia. Williams has been a serviceable back of the rotation piece for the Nationals this season, but his advanced metrics are far less kind than some of his recent solid outings would suggest. Williams holds an xERA of 5.23 and the right-hander ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in whiff rate and xSLG this season. Philadelphia’s lineup has great career numbers against Williams — especially at the top of the order — so I wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a crooked number on Sunday.
Much like their opponents on the other side, the Nationals should be able to get to Suarez. Suarez’s metrics look decent on paper, but the advanced numbers will also tell you a different story. The southpaw currently has an xERA of 4.22 — over a point higher than his actual ERA — to go along with below average xBA, xSLG and chase rate metrics. Winners of 5 of their last 6, the Nats have a good chance to get to Suarez at Citizens Bank Park — so let’s back the over on Sunday.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels Under 8.5 (+100)
To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the under in this interleague matchup between the Diamondbacks and Angels. This is one of the better pitching matchups of the day, and that’s not a surprise if you’ve watched either of these starters this season. On one side, Zac Gallen has been extremely consistent all campaign long and the Arizona ace should effectively stymie the opposing Angels hitters, having allowed an average of 2.2 runs over his last 10 outings. With an ERA of 3.02 and a dozen quality starts on the season, Gallen is one of the best pitchers in the National League and should see more success on the road in this one.
Gallen will be opposed by Reid Detmers, who has been on an absolute tear over his last 4 starts, surrendering just 3 earned runs in his last 26 innings pitched. With just 9 hits and 2 runs allowed in his last 19.2 IP at home, I’m expecting another quality outing from Detmers as he keeps producing on the mound. Both teams are fully capable of contributing toward this number, but this is a case where the starters are just too good. I’ll back the under at this plus-money price.
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