Kyle Lupas
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No better way to celebrate Father’s Day with the old man than to give him some betting insight while watching today’s 15-game MLB slate. The day begins in windy Chicago with a bout between the Cubs and the Cardinals at 1:05 PM ET, and concludes in Boston at 7:10 PM ET with the historic rivalry of the Red Sox and Yankees. I’ve studied the slate and chosen my 3 favorite plays for today, which when parlayed, pays out at 7/1 odds.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +700 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs Cubs under 11 (-106)
Rays ML (+100)
Yankees -1.5 (+106)
MLB Parlay Odds: +700
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs under 11 (-106)
We start our day in the Windy City, where the wind will most certainly play a factor in this ballgame between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. The forecast projects 10-16 mph winds out to center field, with gusts of up to 25 mph. While this should slightly benefit each of these lineups, I believe the number is too high when looking at the overall production of each respective lineup. Through the first 2 games of this series, we’ve seen a combined 9 runs and just 2 home runs. Both the Cubs and the Cardinals rank 19th or worse in home runs and SLG and rank in the bottom half of the league in wRC+.
The pitching matchup for today involves a pair of veteran right-handers in Miles Mikolas and Jameson Taillon. Mikolas enters this start with an uninspiring 4.85 ERA across 14 starts, but has shown some consistency and signs of positive regression over his last 6 starts. Since May 12, Mikolas owns a 3.00 ERA with all 6 of those starts going at least 5.0 innings while allowing 3 earned runs or fewer. The results for Taillon have been much better across the board, owning a 3.09 ERA across his first 10 starts while coming off a 6.0-inning shutout performance against the Tampa Bay Rays in his latest start. The 32-year-old has been terrific at limiting hard contact (76th percentile) and has surrendered just 6 home runs in 55.1 innings of work. The series has been low scoring thus far, and I don’t foresee that changing today, even with the wind playing a factor.
Tampa Bay Rays ML over Atlanta Braves (+100)
Our next game takes us down south to Atlanta, where the Braves look to complete a 3-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Atlanta has outscored Tampa Bay 16-5 through 2 games, but I’m predicting that all changes today and the Rays find a way to salvage the series. Starting for the Rays is 30-year-old right-hander Zach Eflin, who has put together a decent start to the season, now in his 2nd season with Tampa Bay. Through 12 starts, Eflin owns a 4.06 ERA, but his 3.46 xERA is a half run lower. Eflin’s biggest strength is his ability to stay in the strike zone, as he owns a ridiculous 1.4% walk rate. In 68.2 innings pitched this season, Eflin has walked just 4 batters. Eflin, having last played with the Philadelphia Phillies for 7 seasons, has seen plenty of the Braves throughout his career, and he’s held his own. In 14 starts and 17 appearances against the Braves over his career, Eflin is 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA.
Meanwhile, Braves’ #2 prospect and today’s starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep has just 1 MLB start under his belt, and it did not go as planned. Hurston made his debut in Washington on June 9, lasting just 3.2 innings after surrendering 7 earned runs on 4 hits, 4 walks, and just 1 strikeout. The Rays aren’t deep offensively, but they are better than the lineup in Washington, which could spell trouble for the young right-hander. The Braves will hardly ever be underdogs, especially when playing at home, but this line just feels off with the pitching matchup at hand. I’ll back the Rays at plus money and bet on the experience of Eflin over a rookie making his 2nd start in the big leagues.
New York Yankees -1.5 over Boston Red Sox (+106)
Last but not least, our final game of the day takes us to Fenway Park for a rubber match between the Boston Red Sox and the owners of MLB’s best record in the New York Yankees. A win for the Red Sox can go a long way after they just took 2 out of the 3 from the Phillies earlier in the week. A loss would take them back down to .500, and it’s what I’m projecting to happen. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston in an attempt to slow down a red-hot New York offense led by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Since May 5, Judge is hitting .389 with 19 home runs while Soto is 2nd in the AL with a .319 batting average. As a team, the Yankees lead the MLB in runs scored and are 2nd in OPS.
Krawford owns a 3.47 ERA across 14 starts this season, but has yet to see this New York lineup. While Krawford’s ERA appears respectable on paper, he’s experienced some rough outings of late, giving up 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. The opposite can be said for Yankees’ starting pitcher Marcus Stroman, who owns a 2.82 ERA on the year, and a 2.25 ERA across his last 8 starts. The underlying metrics are concerning when you consider Stroman’s expected ERA is 4.47, but I’ll back him until that regression actually begins to show. It also helps when your offense is scoring over 5 runs per game nearly halfway through the season. Look for the Yankees to take the series and back them on the run line.
