Ricky Dimon
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The week in Major League Baseball wraps up with a full 15-game slate on Sunday. What is always a predominantly afternoon-heavy schedule on Sunday is headlined by an ESPN+ showdown between St. Louis and Milwaukee, while we also have Baltimore hosting Arizona and the Dodgers visiting San Diego. After that you can enjoy Sunday Night Baseball at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN, featuring the Braves and Mets.
Below is my mega parlay; also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
Orioles -1.5 (+172)
White Sox ML (+144)
Braves -1.5 (+146)
MLB parlay odds: +1533
For this parlay I am going with 2 favorites on the run line and 1 underdog on the money line. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (+172)
Today could be a tough spot for Zac Gallen. He has performed better at home during his career, and the same was true last season when his 2.27 ERA allowed was far lower than his 4.42 mark when on the road. To begin this season, his home ERA sits at just 0.53 while his road ERA is 4.71. It is still early to put a ton of weight into this season’s home/road splits, but when this has gone on for numerous years, I consider it more. Not only is Gallen on the road for this outing, but he is also still allowing a ton of hard contact. He ranks just 4th percentile this season with a 49.5% hard-hit rate and is set to face a talented Orioles lineup. While Baltimore hasn’t been in its best form against right-handers across the last 30 days, it is still a deep lineup capable of doing damage against anyone. Dean Kremer also allows a good amount of hard contact, but he enters this game in better form — having allowed 2 or fewer runs in each of his last 3 outings. That includes a start against a tough Yankees team and a scoreless outing in Great American Ballpark. Now Kremer faces a Diamondbacks lineup that has talent but is in poor form, ranking 27th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 80 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Give me Baltimore to win and cover.
Chicago White Sox ML over Cleveland Guardians (+144)
As the Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, taking the White Sox +1.5 runs on the run line at -125 offers excellent betting value. The Sox have won 3 straight against the Guardians, showcasing their offensive potential. In what should be a close game, the +1.5 runs is the smart approach. The key factors favoring the White Sox are their hot bats against Cleveland’s shaky pitching. Guardians starter Logan Allen was rocked for 7 runs in just 2.1 innings last time out. He has a 6.41 ERA and has struggled with command. White Sox hitters should be licking their chops facing Allen’s pedestrian stuff. On the other side, White Sox starter Michael Soroka has been far from lights out with a 6.34 ERA. But he has pitched better of late, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in his last 3 starts. With Chicago’s offense coming alive, Soroka just needs to keep his team within striking distance.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 over New York Mets (+146)
The Mets and Braves are ready for some Sunday night baseball at Citi Field, with the Mets aiming to salvage a win in the series before facing the red-hot Phillies. In yesterday’s game the Mets fell 4-1, with the Braves coming just 1 out away from a historic achievement; they held the Mets hitless until J.D. Martinez’s solo blast in the bottom of the ninth. Today the Braves will turn to Bryce Elder, who is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA. Elder struggled in his last outing against the Dodgers, pitching just 3.1 innings and surrendering 7 earned runs on 7 hits. On the other side, the Mets will rely on Luis Severino — who is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA. In Severino’s last start he gave up 4 earned runs on 4 hits in 5.0 innings against the Rays. In the Mets’ last 15 games they have ranked 20th in the league in batting average at .234, with an OPS of .679. Elder should keep New York’s bats in check enough for the bats to hammer out a multi-run victory.
