Kyle Lupas
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We have a loaded MLB slate to close out the weekend and it starts with an early first pitch in Atlanta, where the Orioles and Braves air on NBC and Peacock at 11:35 am ET, and ends in San Diego with the Dodgers and Padres on ESPN for another edition of Sunday Night Baseball. For my mega parlay I’ve keyed in on 3 games set to begin just after 1:30 pm ET and it includes 2 underdogs and 1 favorite on the run line.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Sunday.
Red Sox ML (+108)
Rockies ML (+172)
Twins -1.5 (+120)
Parlay odds: +1144
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Boston Red Sox ML (+108) over Philadelphia Phillies
The Boston Red Sox looked dead in the water a little over a week ago, but they’ve suddenly turned the corner and rattled off 8 wins in a row. They completed a 4-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays and are now only 1 win away from a 3-game sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies. A major key to their turnaround has been their offensive production, which has been relentless. In their last 8 games, Boston has scored at least 5 runs and holds a run differential of 25 runs.
This afternoon the Red Sox face a struggling pitcher in right-hander Taijuan Walker. In his first season with the Phillies, Walker is pitching to a 6.91 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP and is coming off his worst outing of the season in which he allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in a loss to the Dodgers. In addition to that, Walker’s 13.2% walk rate is by far the highest of his career. Tanner Houck takes the mound for Boston, and while his 5.34 ERA is unimpressive, his 4.00 ERA suggests he has experienced some tough breaks. With the Phillies on a 6-game losing streak, these are teams trending in opposite directions. I like the Red Sox to continue their upward trend with another win today.
Colorado Rockies ML (+172) over New York Mets
Similar to the Red Sox and Phillies, the Rockies and Mets are trending in opposite directions. Colorado has won 5 of its last 6 games while New York is 3-10 since April 22. The Mets’ offensive has gone completely stagnant, scoring just 4 runs over the last 4 games, while the Rockies scored 5 runs in their win yesterday. Today I see a favorable matchup for the Rockies when they face off against left-hander Joey Lucchesi.
For starters, Charlie Blackmon is hitting .300 in 20 career at-bats against Lucchesi, but Colorado has performed extremely well as a team over the past week. In that time, the Rockies rank behind only the Red Sox in both batting average and on-base percentage and Lucchesi surrendered 4 earned runs against a below-average Tigers’ team in his last outing. Lucchesi has also had a fair deal of luck to this point, indicative of his 6.30 xERA in comparison to his actual ERA of 3.86. Meanwhile, Ryan Feltner’s 4.44 xERA falls right in line with his 4.45 ERA and he has allowed only 2 earned runs in his previous 3 starts. I think you’re getting the Rockies at a great price considering the Mets’ recent struggles and the projected regression of Lucchesi.
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Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+120) over Cleveland Guardians
My third and final leg of this mega parlay takes place in Cleveland with a rubber match between the Twins and Guardians. Not only do I like the pitching matchup in this game, but of the Twins’ 19 wins this season, 16 have been by 2 or more runs. In the 6 games Joe Ryan has started, the Twins are 5-1 with all 5 wins coming by at least 3 runs. The only game the Twins lost with him on the mound came in his most recent start when the Twins fell in extra innings to the Chicago White Sox. However, it marked Ryans’ first shutout of the season and improved his ERA to 2.37.
The Guardians counter with a right-hander of their own in Cal Quantrill, who makes his 7th start of the year. Quantrill is pitching to a 4.73 ERA, but a 5.72 xERA while striking out only 11.7% of the batters he sees. Neither of these teams does particularly well against right-handed pitching, but I trust the Twins much more than I do the Guardians. Cleveland ranks 28th in runs scored and has only 18 home runs as a team. I think Ryan is in store for a quality outing today and the Twins should be able to get him an early lead.
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