Kevin Davies
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We are making it through another week in the Major League Baseball season. The trade deadline is just 2 days away, so expect plenty of movement in the next 48 hours. As for today, I created a 3-leg parlay that pays out at over 11/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Let’s see if I can win 2 in a row after cashing Friday’s +1282 MLB Mega Parlay!
Nationals ML (+124)
Rockies/Giants alternate Over 8.5 (+124)
Yankees/Red Sox alternate Over 10.5 (+146)
Parlay odds: +1134
Washington Nationals ML (+124) over St. Louis Cardinals
I’ve never been one to back Miles Mikolas, and I’m not changing that today. The St. Louis starter has had another disappointing season as he owns a 5.02 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP in 21 starts. Mikolas has been even more unreliable in recent weeks since he has surrendered 24 runs, 44 hits and 6 home runs in his last 34.0 innings. During that span of starts, Mikolas has allowed a .319 batting average, a .314 xBA and an absurd 44% hard-hit rate. He remains one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball and although the Nats just shipped off Jesse Winker to the Mets, they should have enough firepower on offense to get to Mikolas. Plus, DJ Herz has been fantastic in his short time in the majors; he has held hitters to a .218 xBA with a 27.8% strikeout rate in 8 starts. I’ll back the better pitcher and take the risk with the Nats at plus odds.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants Over 8.5 (+124)
Jordan Hicks was a star at the beginning of the season. San Francisco signed the reliever and made the surprising move to put him into the starting rotation. That appeared to be a genius move at the start of the year when he had a 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in April. Hicks started to become more hittable in May as he finished with a 3.99 ERA, but it kept getting worse. He was 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA in June and is currently 0-3 with a 8.31 ERA in 3 starts this month. In just his last 5 starts, Hicks is allowing a .333 batting average with a .321 xBA to go along with a 12% walk rate–far higher than his season average. Hicks’ control is starting to weaken and his velocity is starting to dip, and that is causing a problem in his performances. As for his counterpart, Austin Gomber has a 4.70 ERA with a .277 xBA and has been even worse recently. In the last 2 months, Gomber has surrendered 4 or more runs in 7 of his 9 starts. He’s allowed a .321 batting average in that span, so I’ll back the lineups and expect a high-scoring affair between a pair of struggling pitchers.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Over 10.5 (+146)
If you took the over in either of the games in this series, you wouldn’t have had to sweat one bit. There were 16 combined runs in the series opener and then 19 last night. The reason for the incredibly high-scoring games is because of two main things: the hitting conditions at Fenway Park and the terrible bullpens. Both teams have taken full advantage of the generous hitting conditions of Fenway as the Green Monster has been peppered with balls this series. Plus, it’s been mid 80s with wind blowing out all weekend in Boston; that’s the same forecast for tonight. Secondly, these 2 bullpens have been atrocious. In just 2 games, the Boston bullpen has allowed 17 hits and 10 runs and the New York bullpen has surrendered 9 hits and 8 runs. There is no reason to have any confidence in either bullpen right now, especially since last night’s game went to extra innings and both teams used at least 6 relievers. Oh, and did I mention Carlos Rodon is starting for the Yankees? Take the over and watch the ball fly at Fenway.
