Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is officially underway and we have a big slate on Sunday with all 30 teams in action. And what better way to celebrate the fourth day of the new campaign than by going for a big payday? That’s right, we’re back with another mega parlay.
We’re going big and bold again, so let’s not waste any more time. But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game today.
Orioles ML (+166)
Tigers ML (+116)
Braves -1.5 (+104)
Parlay odds: +1072
Let’s break down each of the legs one by one.
Orioles ML (+166) over Rays
To start off this mega parlay we have the Orioles on the money line. Baltimore’s offense hasn’t looked great through the first two games, but neither has Tampa’s. And I think the O’s may actually have the advantage on the mound here. They’ll start Tyler Wells here, who quietly showed a lot of promise last year. The 6’8 hurler had a 0.91 WHIP in 57 innings in his rookie season last year. Wells came out of nowhere because of a Tommy John surgery that set him back in the minors a couple years ago, but the Rule 5 draft find looks like he could turn out to be a diamond in the rough.
Corey Kluber will start for the Rays, and I think he’s over the hill. Kluber will turn 36 on Sunday (happy birthday Corey), and he just didn’t look the same last year with the Yankees. The guy he was pre-injury in 2018 and 2017 is not the same guy we saw in New York last season. He had a 1.34 WHIP and was walking a ton of batters. After pitching less than 37.0 innings across 2019 and 2020, he just doesn’t have it anymore.
Tigers ML (+116) over White Sox
The Tigers are another team that’s being underrated. Give me Detroit as a home ‘dog for the next leg of this parlay. These two teams have split their first two games, and Chicago won on Saturday thanks to a great effort from Dylan Cease. I’m less optimistic about the pitching performance they’ll get on Sunday from Michael Kopech. Kopech made only four starts last season, pitching mostly an inning at a time. He melted down in both of his playoff appearances when we saw him most recently, giving up six runs across three innings.
Kopech also pitched noticeably worse on the road than at home last year. Conversely, Tigers starter Tarik Skubal had an ERA that was two full runs lower at home than on the road. Detroit’s offense is better than you might realize, and the addition of Javy Baez is already proving to be a difference maker. Baez has multiple hits in each of his first two games as a Tiger, and he had a walk-off hit to win them Friday’s opener.
Braves -1.5 (+104) over Reds
I’m just as excited as everyone else about the MLB debut of Hunter Greene, but the Braves should win this one easily. So I’m going with Atlanta on the run line to wrap up this mega parlay and hopefully bring us home. It’s cool that the former second overall pick is making his debut here, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll fare particularly well — especially not on the road against the Braves’ really tough lineup.
Greene pitched 9.0 innings of spring training ball in the run-up to this start. In those nine innings, he gave up 16 baserunners and four home runs. It’s a tough ask for any pitcher to go against this Braves offense right now, yet alone a 22-year-old making his first start in the bigs. They showed on Friday what they can do to an inexperienced young starter. The Reds sent out Reiver Sanmartin for the third start of his career in that one, and he lasted less than 3.0 innings while giving up nine baserunners and five earned runs.
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