Caleb Wilfinger
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One of the best rivalries in baseball resumes on Friday afternoon as the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of a 4-game series at Wrigley Field. Both teams are well out of the playoff picture at the moment, but the visitors are playing their best baseball of the season, while the hosts are sending their ace to the mound.
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+158)
Over 8.5 (-105)
Paul Goldschmidt to record a hit (-260)
Same Game Parlay odds: +538
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case here, as Paul Goldschmidt getting a hit doesn’t necessarily correlate with a convincing Cubs win on paper.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+158)
Both teams are swinging the bats well, but Chicago has the clear advantage on the mound. The Cubs will be starting Justin Steele, who had a terrific first half of the campaign. His ERA is still below 3.00, which even includes a bad outing last week against the Red Sox in which he surrendered 6 runs. Steele dominated the Cardinals in London earlier this season, holding them to just 1 run in a hitters’ park.
Given how good Steele has been this season, I’m expecting him to turn in another strong performance. It’s hard to be as confident in Jack Flaherty, who has been the picture of inconsistency this season. I trust Steele and the Cubs offense at home, so let’s back the home team on Friday afternoon.
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Over 8.5 (-105)
Given that I don’t expect Cubs starter Justin Steele to give up much damage, we are counting on the Cubs’ offense to produce. Jack Flaherty has been quite hittable in 2023, and he has also had a hard time avoiding walking hitters this season. Flaherty has given up multiple walks in most of his outings, plus he has given up 9 or more hits in 3 of his last 5 outings. It seems fortunate that he has stranded as many of those baserunners as he has, but I don’t see that being the case today. The X-factor in this one, as it typically is in Wrigley Field, is the windy conditions. Hopefully we’ll get the win blowing out in our favor, but even without the wind, these offenses have been swinging the bat so well since the break. Let’s side with the over in this one.
You can also check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
Paul Goldschmidt to record a hit (-260)
As the Cardinals have started to turn their season around — winning 8 of their last 10 games — Paul Goldschmidt has been at the center of their offensive success. The first baseman has tallied 13 hits over his last 10 games, including a 2-hit performance in the series opener on Thursday. That game was one of 4 multi-hit performances from Goldschmidt over his last 6 starts, so the fact that we need only 1 hit to complete our SGP is a good sign. The righty is 5-of-13 in his career against Steele, including a home run and a .615 SLG percentage. He also ranks in the top 7th percentile of all hitters in xwOBA and hard-hit rate, while sitting in the top 12th percentile in xBA and xSLG. Getting a single hit should be fairly straightforward for this red-hot hitter.
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