Caleb Wilfinger
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With more than a dozen MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game.
There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Saturday, so let’s get right into it.
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
When Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals, you have to lean toward the YRFI. Corbin has been awful this season and his advanced metrics are pretty ghastly. The left-hander has a 6.57 ERA while ranking near the bottom for xERA through 109.2 innings. Corbin has especially struggled of late, allowing 25 runs on 39 hits in his last 21.0 innings. That makes for an ERA north of 10 in his last 5 starts. Furthermore, Corbin will now have to face a red-hot lineup that has crushed him already this year. In his last start against the Phillies he allowed 9 runs and Philadelphia is swinging the bat too well at the moment to ignore. Look for a quick start out of the Phillies.
Even if Philadelphia doesn’t score off Corbin, Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been pretty middling this season. The Nationals offense isn’t great by any stretch of the imagination, but Victor Robles and Nelson Cruz both have solid career numbers off Suarez. I expect at least one run to be scored in the first inning on Saturday.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers: NRFI (-110)
While both the Padres and Dodgers have elite offenses, their pitching is what can set them apart. Friday’s game was about Los Angeles’ outburst at the plate, but Saturday’s contest should feature better pitching. San Diego is sending Mike Clevinger to the mound and he has been pretty solid all season long. Clevinger doesn’t overpower hitters, but he has been consistent to the tune of a 3.13 ERA and WOBA of .270. If he can get past Mookie Betts, who has solid career numbers against Clevinger, he should be able to work a clean first frame.
On the other side, Andrew Heaney has been a revelation for Los Angeles. Heaney hasn’t pitched much this season, but he has been excellent when called upon. The left-hander holds an ERA of 0.77 and an xBA of 1.84 through 23.1 innings. While the Padres top of the order is extremely dangerous, they don’t have much experience against Heaney. Look for both pitchers to take the challenge and quiet these electric offenses, even if it’s only for an inning.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers
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