Ricky Dimon
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We have a full 15-game slate in Major League Baseball on Wednesday, which includes some intriguing division rivalries such as the San Diego Padres vs. the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. Also on the schedule is an in-city battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels. There are plenty of opportunities to find value on the betting market. Here is a lucrative three-team parlay.
Twins -1.5 (-105)
Astros -1.5 (+135)
Braves -1.5 (+115)
Parlay odds: +865
For this parlay we are going with three favorites on the -1.5 run line. Here is a breakdown of the three legs one by one.
Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Detroit Tigers (-105)
If Minnesota is going to get back into the race in the American League Central, it needs to start winning games like this one. The Twins are 10th in Major League Baseball in runs scored and that kind of production should be good enough most nights, especially with scoring down across the league. It should definitely be good enough against the Tigers, who are saddled with the worst record in the league. There is nothing fluky about it, either. They are last in scoring and second-to-last in team ERA. Detroit cannot be expected to do much damage against Minnesota starter Jose Berrios on Saturday. Jose Urena has been decent for Detroit, but he is going up against a Twins lineup that can rake.
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Houston Astros -1.5 over Toronto Blue Jays (+135)
If you don’t know the name Christian Javier, you will soon. Houston’s 24-year-old righty has been lights out on the mound, with three scoreless outings this season. Before giving up three runs in the fifth inning of his last start, Javier had pitched 21.0 straight scoreless innings. His ERA is now 1.75 and he has an FIP of just 2.55 while also boasting a WHIP below 0.90. As for the Astros’ offense, they have three regulars batting above .300. They face lefty Steven Matz of the Blue Jays, which is good news for the Astros since they are hitting .266 with a .326 OBP against southpaws so far this season. In his first three starts of 2021, Matz looked like the pitcher everyone thought he could be. But he soon went back to his Mets days and has allowed 14 runs in his last 13.2 innings. Matz is above average at not allowing free passes or getting hit hard, but what he struggles at is finishing at-bats because he ranks in the 28th percentile in whiff percentage and 27th percentile in chase rate. The Astros have the more reliable pitcher and the more powerful offense.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Philadelphia Phillies (+115)
Vince Velasquez remains in the Philadelphia rotation after tossing 6.0 innings of one-run ball in a 4-3 win over Milwaukee on Monday. However, that was just the second time since 2019 that Velasquez has completed 6.0 innings, and he has not been a reliant starter in recent memory. Philadelphia’s bullpen has been extremely problematic, so if Velasquez can’t repeat his performance from his last outing then the visitors could be in trouble. Even with their win last night, the Phillies are just 5-9 on the road this season. Ian Anderson will get the nod for Atlanta. The right-hander posted a 2.48 ERA in the month of April and he had completed 15.2 consecutive scoreless innings before the Blue Jays got to him for four runs in his last outing. Anderson is holding hitters to a .215 average—including .194 when he pitches at home. Going into Friday’s contest, the Braves led all of baseball with 45 home runs in 32 games.
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