Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is back in full swing after the All-Star break, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We have a big slate on Saturday, and we’ve got a nice inter-league matchup here as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Minnesota Twins. It’ll be broadcasted widely by FS1.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised game than by betting a late night same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 (+235)
Bailey Ober to record 6+ strikeouts (+230)
Parlay odds: +994
We’ve got a simple two-leg parlay here, one which pays out just shy of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
St. Louis Cardinals -2.5 (+235)
The Cardinals have a decided advantage here. St. Louis is starting to heat up, as they’ve gone 8-4 in their last 12 games, winning the opener of this series. The Twins, on the other hand, are circling the drain. They’re just 4-11 in their last 15, and have more or less thrown in the towel on the season by trading slugger Nelson Cruz. That sent a clear message they aren’t planning on making a miraculous run down the stretch.
The Cardinals are still in the playoff hunt, and while they’ve been subpar on the road, they’ve been pretty good at home all year. They’re just 23-31 on the highway, but are 29-20 at home. Jake Woodford just joined the rotation from the bullpen a couple of weeks ago, and his first two starts have gone pretty well. He’s given up just four runs across both outings. Twins starter Bailey Ober has mostly struggled in his rookie season, entering with a 5.19 ERA through 10 starts. I don’t see how oddsmakers have this one as even close to even.
Bailey Ober to record 6+ strikeouts (+230)
I don’t think these plays conflict much at all. A bet at +230 only needs to cash 30 percent of the time to be profitable. Ober has got to at least 6 strikeouts in 3 of his past 8 starts, a clip of 37.5%, despite mostly struggling from the mound. He’s a rookie, so I think it’s fair to expect he’ll get better with time. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning, he just hasn’t gone too deep in most starts. If we can get six innings from him here, I think he’s likely to cash this. His stats also don’t tell the full story, since he’s faced a very tough slate of opposing lineups. Seven of his 10 starts have come against the Angels, Reds, White Sox or Astros. Those are four of the league’s most productive offenses, and they each rank in the top 11 of MLB in OPS. St. Louis is 25th in OPS.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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