Kevin Davies
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Welcome to the weekend! It’s a great day for baseball and all 30 teams are hitting the diamond today. There is plenty of action on all day, so let’s not waste any time and get right into it!
Guardians ML (+110)
Phillies -1.5 (+102)
Red Sox -1.5 (+158)
Parlay odds: +994
Cleveland Guardians ML (+110) over Milwaukee Brewers
Tanner Bibee has become the new ace of the Cleveland rotation. He burst onto the scene in 2023 and had a phenomenal rookie season as he posted a 10-4 record with a 2.98 ERA in 25 starts. Although he doesn’t have a sub-3 ERA in 2024, he’s still been the most consistent member of the Guardians pitching staff. Bibee comes into this start with a 3.39 ERA and a 3.61 xERA in 23 starts and has been even better in the last few weeks. Bibee limped into the All-Star break after a grueling first half of the season, but the extended rest during the break proved to be exactly what Bibee needed. In 4 starts since then, Bibee is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP against the Padres, Twins, and Tigers twice. He’s held hitters to a stunning .210 batting average in that span which gives me the confidence to back him against a Brewers lineup that just lost Christian Yelich. At this good of a price, it’s hard to go against Bibee and the Guardians.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+102) over Washington Nationals
The series opener turned into a slaughter very quickly. The Phillies came away with a 13-3 win and their offense appeared to be back on track. Next up was Patrick Corbin, and the Phillies took a 2-0 lead into the 9th inning and blew it, but were able to win the game in the bottom of the inning. In short, the Phillies should have covered the run line in both games. And for the 3rd straight time, the Nationals will trot out a lefty to face the Phillies. MacKenzie Gore has had an up-and-down season that has him in the low part right now. He’s 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 5 starts since the All-Star break. He’s allowed an absurd .344 batting average and .332 xBA in those 5 starts, so it’s hard to have any faith in him against a Philadelphia lineup that ranks 1st against left-handed pitchers in the second half of the season. Plus, the Phillies are starting Cristopher Sanchez, who has a 2.32 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 12 starts at home this season. This should be another easy win for the Phillies.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+158) over Baltimore Orioles
The Red Sox continue to surprise. Last night, they tagged Corbin Burnes for 8 earned runs – the most of his entire career. Boston finished with 12 total runs against Burnes and the Baltimore bullpen, but to no surprise, their pitching was terrible. The Sox allowed 10 runs and narrowly held on for the win even with 12 runs. Fortunately for them, they are lined up to face the rookie Cade Povich on Saturday. The lefty made his MLB debut a few months ago and hasn’t been the reliable arm the O’s were hoping for. In 8 starts, Povich has a 6.27 ERA with a 4.33 xERA. His xBA is solid at .223, but his problem has been walks. The lefty has a 14.1% strikeout rate (3rd percentile) and a 13.1% walk rate (4th percentile), so his control has been a huge issue at the MLB level. Giving the Red Sox lineup plenty of baserunners is dangerous, so even though their pitching is worrisome, I’m backing Boston to win big against the rookie.
