We’ve made it to the weekend in Major League Baseball. There is plenty of exciting action today like Mookie Betts’ homecoming in Boston continues, the Yankees and Rays square off in Tampa Bay and the Rangers and Twins fighting to keep ahold of their division lead. Here is my 3-team MLB mega parlay at nearly 10/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook, and make sure to also check out all of today’s MLB predictions.
Nationals ML (+180)
Red Sox ML (+120)
Brewers ML (-130)
Parlay odds: +989
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Washington Nationals ML (+180) over Miami Marlins
Coming into this series, the Nationals were one of the hottest teams in the MLB. Never did I think I would say that about Washington this season, but they continue to be a surprise. The Nats took 2 of 3 from the Yankees in the Bronx earlier this week behind Josiah Gray and Patrick Corbin – two guys most people thought would get hit hard by New York. But no, Gray and Corbin have actually been decent in the last few weeks, and so has Jake Irvin. The rookie is coming off the best start of his career against the Phillies as he threw 6-shutout innings and surrendered just 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7. Irvin is fortunate enough to be backed by an offense that has the 8th-highest batting average and 10th-best on-base percentage since August 10.
Eury Perez is going to be a superstar in this league. At just 20 years old, Perez has been incredible in his short time in the MLB. I made sure to mention short because the Marlins are being very careful with Perez’s workload this season. Coming into 2023, the most innings Perez had thrown in his professional career was 78, back in 2021. So when the 6’8” right-hander hit 84.1 innings between the Minors and Marlins in July, he was shut down for a few weeks. Since then, he’s made 2 Minor League starts and 3 Major League starts, but I don’t anticipate him to go too long in this game. And since coming back, Perez has a 4.91 ERA and has allowed 3 homers in 14.2 innings. The bottom line is the Nats don’t deserve to be this big of underdogs, so I’m backing them at near 2/1 odds.
Boston Red Sox ML (+120) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Welcome back to Boston, Mookie Betts! The former MVP for the Red Sox is making his first trip back to Fenway Park since being traded to the Dodgers before the 2020 season. But this weekend is not just about him – it’s about Boston’s last-minute surge into a Wild Card spot. For months, it looked like the Wild Card spots in the American League would go to the Orioles, Blue Jays and Astros, but heading into Friday night’s games, the spots are actually occupied by the Rays, Mariners and Astros. However, the Red Sox find themselves only 3.5 games out heading into this series, so every game counts. Kutter Crawford started for Boston on Friday night, and it will be James Paxton’s turn in the rotation on Saturday. The southpaw has been very off and on this month, but all of his “on” performances have come at Fenway. That’s no coincidence either, because Paxton owns a 2.58 ERA in Boston compared to a 4.67 ERA on the road.
Similar to Paxton, Julio Urias is much better at home. Unfortunately for him, he’s about 3,000 miles away from home. Urias has been fantastic at Dodger Stadium with a 2.30 ERA and has held hitters to a .196 batting average in 10 starts. But in 9 starts on the road, the lefty has a 6.80 ERA and is allowing a .295 batting average and an .894 OPS. Boston has been right in the middle of the pack against left-handed pitching this season, so it’s not necessarily an advantage for them, but that’s also why they are listed as the underdogs. After their hitting performance in Houston, I’m optimistic about the Red Sox offense right now. They know they need to start winning some big games, so I’m taking a shot at their plus-odds money line tonight.
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Milwaukee Brewers ML (-130) over San Diego Padres
Two words: Freddy Peralta. The right-hander has been fantastic in the second half of the season with a 5-1 record and a 2.38 ERA in 7 starts. His strikeout rate has also jumped to 38% compared to 27% in the first half of the season. In his last 5 starts, Peralta has surrendered only 5 earned runs and 19 hits while racking up 50 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. Those are video game numbers, and the fact that he is doing it consistently makes it all the more impressive. And now that Brandon Woodruff is back, the Brewers’ 3-headed monster of Corbin Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff is complete. Milwaukee relies on their pitching to win games, and with the way all 3 aces have been throwing the ball recently, it’s an excellent strategy.
Pedro Avila is only 26 years old, yet he’s been in the Minors for the last 8 years. He was originally signed by the Washington Nationals in 2014, but he was traded to the Padres in 2016 and has been in San Diego ever since. However, it’s been a battle for Avila to make it to the show. He had appeared in only 13.1 innings in the MLB prior to this year but has finally made a name for himself as the long reliever for the Padres. He’s appeared in 7 games, including 1 start, and has a 1.17 ERA paired with a 1.17 WHIP in 23 innings. He’s yet to allow more than 1 run in an outing, however, that’s also because he has never pitched more than 4.2 innings yet. I’m expecting Avila to go 3-4 innings before the Padres bullpen gets involved, and that’s where the problems usually arise. With the way Peralta has looked since the All-Star Game, I have to ride him again.
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