Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball games taking place on Saturday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +968 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Saturday.
Reds first 5 innings ML (-105)
Mets -1.5 (+130)
Nationals ML (+138)
MLB parlay odds: +968
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Cincinnati Reds first 5 innings ML (-105) over Houston Astros
To start our mega parlay, we’re going with the Reds on the money line in the first 5 innings. Cincinnati has been hot over the last 2 weeks, posting a 9-2 record over its last 11 games, including a 2-1 victory over the Astros on Friday. The outlook looks positive for the Reds on Saturday, as their young phenom Hunter Greene has also been outstanding on the road in 2023, allowing just 11 earned runs over his last 6 outings away from Cincinnati. The hard-throwing righty should keep dominating opposing hitters in this one, having surrendered just 8 hits in his last 17.1 innings pitched.
Cincinnati’s lineup has been invigorated since the insertion of rookie Elly De La Cruz last week, and all signs point to that continuing against Brandon Bielak (6.36 xERA), who is in the bottom 10 percentile of all qualified pitchers in xwOBA, xSLG, xBA, hard-hit rate and barrel percentage. I like taking the bullpens out of the equation in a matchup where one starter is clearly better than the other, so it’s hard to pass up backing the Reds in the first 5 innings.
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New York Mets -1.5 (+130) over St. Louis Cardinals
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the Mets on the money line. The main reason I like the Mets is because Kodai Senga has been on a roll recently. He posted a 2.79 ERA in May and started to find comfort in the pitcher-friendly park of Citi Field. So even though he struggled in his last outing, that start was the first time that Senga was starting on 4 days of rest, compared to his usual 5 or 6 days. That’s the Senga we should see on Saturday since he will be operating on 6 days of rest. Conversely, Adam Wainwright has become a batting practice pitcher this season (5.79 ERA, 6.21 xERA in 37.1 IP), and that shouldn’t stop any time soon. I’m more than comfortable with fading the Cardinals in Flushing on Saturday.
You can also check out our YRFI/NRFI Best Bets for Saturday
Washington Nationals ML (+138) over Miami Marlins
To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the Nationals on the money line. Both Braxton Garrett and Jake Irvin have ERAs north of 4, but Irvin has the more favorable matchup for the Nationals in this one. Yes, he has a 5.81 ERA with a 5.82 xERA through 7 starts, indicating that his rough season has not been a result of bad luck. However, Garrett has an xERA of 4.71 compared to his ERA of 4.11, showing that regression could be looming for the Marlins starter. But here’s the thing – the Nationals crush lefties. Over the last 6 weeks, Washington has a 114 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers which ranks in the top half of baseball during that time. With that in mind, I’ll take a shot on the Nationals money line.
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