Kyle Lupas
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It is another story filled day in the MLB, with no bigger headline than Paul Skenes making his Major League debut. While I’ll be tuning in for his highly-anticipated outing, I will be passing on making a play. Instead, I have my eyes set on a pair of underdogs and a favorite on the run line paying out at +964 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Below I’ll provide a breakdown of each individual leg and don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Twins ML (+126)
Astros ML (+116)
Brewers -1.5 (+118)
MLB Parlay Odds: +964
Minnesota Twins ML over Blue Jays (+126)
The Toronto Blue Jays are just 2-6 across their last 8 games and fell to the Minnesota Twins last night by a score of 3-2. The win for Minnesota marked their 16th win in their last 18 games and they are undoubtedly among the hottest teams in baseball. Over that 18-game stretch, the Twins have scored an average of 6.39 runs per game and have performed well against right-handed pitching, posting a 105 wRC+. This afternoon, they will go up against right-hander Kevin Gausman who owns a respectable 3.78 ERA over his first 7 starts. While Gausman’s numbers look good on paper, his underlying metrics aren’t indicative of an ace. Gausman’s posting the highest barrel rate of his career and his strikeout numbers are down significantly from years prior. In addition to that, his 4.99 xERA reeks of regression as he goes up against a lineup that’s been consistent on the year.
Countering for the Twins is another right-hander in Simeon Woods Richardson, making his 5th start of the season with a 1.74 ERA with 21 strikeouts to just 5 walks. Like Gausman, Richardson is expected to experience some regression when taking into account his 3.70 xERA. That being said, Richardson has gone at least 5.0 innings in 3 of his 4 outings and has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in any start. Richardson’s ability to limit walks and miss barrels should go a long way against a Toronto lineup with a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The Blue Jays have also been inconsistent at producing runs, and have scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 15 games. I’ll give the edge to Richardson and the Twins’ lineup to get our parlay started today.
Houston Astros ML over Detroit Tigers (+116)
Our next game takes us out to Detroit in a bout between the Tigers and the visiting Houston Astros. At 14-24, there is no question that the Astros have been baseball’s biggest disappointment to start the season, but things might begin to change having won their last 2 games. Offensively, Houston is doing just fine, ranking 3rd in BA and 7th in OPS, it just has not translated to many wins. Meanwhile, the 19-19 Tigers rank 23rd and 25th in those respective categories and have gone just 1-6 in their last 7 games. I’m actually a little surprised to see the Tigers favored in this game given the pitching matchup of Cristian Javier and Tarik Skubal.
Don’t get me wrong, Skubal is having a phenomenal season with a 1.90 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, while his advanced metrics don’t suggest much regression, but the Astros have historically performed well against left-handed pitching. Houston ranks 4th against lefties with a 126 wRC+ and they might be one of the few teams to pose a threat to Skubal. The main difference in this game however is going to be the effectiveness of Javier and staying out of the bullpen early for Houston. Houston’s bullpen owns a 4.60 ERA and 4.21 xFIP, but Javier has gone at least 5.0 innings in all 4 of his outings this season, including 7.0 innings in his last start against the Texas Rangers. Javier owns a 1.54 ERA thus far with a hard-hit rate ranking in the 95th percentile. Going up against Detroit should be a favorable matchup for Javier considering the Tigers own a 88 wRC+ against righties. I’m going to fade a struggling Detroit team and back a Houston team that could be on the rise.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (+118)
For our final game, we head to Milwaukee for game 3 of a 4 game set between the Brewers and the visiting St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals held their own in the month of April, going 13-13, but have started May with a 1-7 record including 6 straight losses. They’ve yet to beat the Brewers this season, who are a perfect 5-0 against St. Louis with a +25 run differential. The Brewers have made light work of the Cardinals in the series thus far, posting wins of 7-1 and 11-2 and should be primed for another solid performance tonight. Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee tonight with a 3.49 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in both whiff rate and strikeout rate. Peralta’s last start against the Cardinals was back on April 19 where he tossed 6.0 scoreless innings en route to a 2-1 victory.
For St. Louis, it will be 36-year-old veteran Kyle Gibson making his 8th start of the season. Gibson has held his own thus far, posting a 3.68 ERA while going toe-to-toe with Peralta his last time out, surrendering just 1 earned run across 6.0 innings. However, even though Gibson has posted quality outings in 5 of his 7 starts, regression appears to be in the near future. Gibson’s 5.43 xERA is nearly 2 runs higher than his actual ERA and he’s finding more barrels than at any other point in his career. Milwaukee owns a 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and I believe they get to Gibson seeing him for a second time now. I’ll back Milwaukee to stay perfect against the Cardinals and play them on the run line.
