Welcome to the weekend in Major League Baseball. It’s a loaded Saturday, per usual, and games will be on all day, starting in the Bronx with an AL East showdown between the Rays and Yankees. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup, but for now, let’s get into Saturday’s MLB mega parlay.
Cardinals-Red Sox over 10 (-105)
Rockies ML (+135)
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130)
Parlay odds: +955
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St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox over 10 (-105)
Last night’s game between these teams turned into a softball score with 14 runs scored. Adam Wainwright got knocked around, and then the Boston bullpen was shelled for 6 runs even though they used their top 2 relievers. And now on Saturday afternoon, with a lefty-on-lefty matchup, I’m backing the over once again. For starters, I just don’t trust Steven Matz. The southpaw had a few good years for the Mets but hasn’t turned into the reliable starter that St. Louis was hoping for. He had a 5.25 ERA last season and is 0-4 with a 5.75 ERA through 7 starts this season, so you can see why I hesitate to back him. Matz is even worse on the road as his ERA balloons to 7.20 with a 1.73 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .317 against him.
It’s hard to guess which version of Chris Sale will show up on Saturday afternoon. Looking back at his last few starts, he was rocked by the Rays, was great against the Twins, shelled by the Orioles and then excelled against the Guardians. But I see a similarity in his 2 good starts against the Twins and Guardians. Cleveland ranks 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching while the Twins rank 28th. Both offenses are terrible against southpaws, which is why Sale was able to have success against them. Unfortunately for Sale, the Cardinals don’t fall into the category since they have a 110 wRC+ against lefties. Between these two unreliable pitchers, the over is the best bet in this game.
Don’t miss today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets!
Colorado Rockies ML (+135) over Philadelphia Phillies
Ryan Feltner has been catching my eye a lot over the last few weeks. Although his 5.08 ERA is nothing special, he’s been much better in his recent starts. Feltner had 3 really poor outings at the beginning of the season, which skewed his ERA slightly because since those starts, he has allowed just a .240 batting average with a 21% strikeout rate and just a 34% hard-hit rate. Admittedly, he didn’t look great in his last outing, primarily because he allowed 6 walks which blew up his pitch count. Walks have always been a slight problem for Feltner, which was the case in his first start against the Phillies this season, but the right-hander still threw 5.2 scoreless innings at Citizens Bank Park.
Ranger Suarez will make his season debut this evening in Colorado. The lefty has been sidelined for a while with an elbow injury but made 3 rehab starts in preparation for his return. He will take on a Rockies lineup who have won 8 of their last 11 games and actually out-hit Philadelphia last night even though they lost. In the last 2 weeks, Colorado is hitting .279 with a .342 on-base percentage and they look undervalued tonight. Feltner has already proved he can shut down the Philadelphia lineup, so I’m taking a shot on him to do it again at a great price.
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Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130) over San Francisco Giants
I’m starting to think that Zac Gallen isn’t human. The Diamondbacks ace was incredible last season and even had a streak of 6 consecutive starts without allowing a run. That streak put Gallen’s name on the map for the NL Cy Young award, and it looks like he’s back to his old tricks already this season. Gallen was riding high on a 28 consecutive scoreless innings streak before the Rangers were able to break it up 2 weeks ago. But he bounced back with another incredible start against the Marlins as he finished with 1 run and 5 hits allowed in 7 innings. If you take out his first 2 starts of the season, Gallen is allowing a .168 batting average with a .213 xBA and a 39% strikeout rate in 6 outings.
Anthony DeSclafani has had a weird last few weeks. The veteran began the month with an 8-inning scoreless start with just 3 hits allowed in Houston to the reigning World Series champs, which lowered his season ERA to 2.13. But then DeSclafani returned home and was shelled by the Nationals for 5 runs and 10 hits in 7 innings. That start is worrisome because Washington has been one of the worst teams against right-handed pitching this season while the Diamondbacks rank 6th in wRC+ against righties. Gallen has an excellent chance to start a new scoreless streak on Saturday night, and it should come during a multi-run win.
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