Kyle Lupas
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Saturday offers another loaded slate with all 30 teams in action. The day starts out in Toronto at 3:07 pm ET with the Blue Jays hosting the Dodgers, shifts to Mexico City for a 2-game series featuring the Astros and Rockies and concludes in Seattle at 9:40 pm ET with the Mariners taking on the Diamondbacks.
Today’s parlay features a trio of West Coast games with +913 odds at Fanduel Sportsbook. Below I’ll provide a breakdown of each individual leg, and also don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Phillies ML (-102)
Giants -1.5 (+146)
Diamondbacks vs Mariners alt total over 7.5 (+108)
MLB Parlay Odds: +913
Philadelphia Phillies ML over San Diego Padres (-102)
I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, but it’s worth repeating just how dominant the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation has been nearly 30 games into the season. Phillies starters have managed to post a 2.18 ERA thus far, which is by far the best mark in the National League. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation ranks second with a 3.50 ERA. Not only have Phillies starters been effective at limiting runs, but they’ve often gone deep into games, with their 161.0 innings pitched leading the MLB. Tonight’s starter is Ranger Suarez, who is a perfect 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA. The Phillies have also come out on top in all 5 of his starts.
Zach Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez are all currently top-10 Cy Young candidates according to oddsmakers, but Suarez has been on a tear. He hasn’t allowed a run in 3 consecutive starts and has a 25-inning scoreless streak heading into this start. One would think regression is inevitable, but the underlying metrics don’t suggest that’s the case. Suarez has a 1.88 xERA, 25% hard-hit rate and a ground-ball rate in the 96th percentile. The San Diego Padres counter with a Cy Young hopeful of their own in right-hander Dylan Cease. He has impressed through his first 5 starts as a Padre, owning a 1.82 ERA while compiling wins over his last 3 starts. There are a few concerning metrics surrounding Cease, such as his 39% walk rate and ground-ball rate in the 12th percentile, but this should be a classic pitching matchup. The difference in this game is the Phillies’ lineup, which has started to pick it up of late. They have scored at least 5 runs in 8 of their last 10 games and plated 9 runs on 13 hits and 5 home runs in yesterday’s win. Therefore I’ll back the Phillies as slight underdogs tonight in San Diego.
San Francisco Giants -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (+146)
We stay out in California for the second leg of this parlay as the San Francisco Giants host the Pittsburgh Pirates. San Fran took game 1 of the series, posting a 3-0 shutout and getting their 3rd win in their last 4 games. Meanwhile, the Pirates have fallen into a slump, losing 9 of their last 11 games after an 11-5 start to the season. Of those 9 losses, 8 have been by at least 2 runs with the Pirates generating just 2 runs per game across their last 11. With their offense struggling to score runs, Pittsburgh isn’t getting any favors tonight when the Giants send Jordan Hicks to the mound. After spending his first 5 seasons in St. Louis with a short stint in Toronto, Hicks was finally given the opportunity to pitch out of the rotation in San Francisco – and it’s an opportunity he’s taken full advantage of. Through 5 starts, Hicks owns a 1.61 ERA and has not surrendered more than 2 earned runs in any of his outings. His strikeout rate is significantly down from years prior, but he’s decreased his walks and has limited hard contact.
For the Pirates it will be left-hander Martin Perez, making his 6th start since coming over from the Rangers. Perez has been serviceable thus far with a 3.45 ERA, but his underlying metrics aren’t highly encouraging. His 4.59 xERA is over a run higher than his actual ERA, while his 44.4% hard-hit rate is the worst mark of his career. Perez is also coming off a shaky start against the Red Sox in which he threw 91 pitches in just 4.0 innings while giving up 4 walks and 4 earned runs. The Giants have the better starting pitcher in this game and the Pirates have been too stagnant offensively to like in this game. I’ll back San Fran on the run line.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners alt total over 7.5 (+108)
For the final leg of this parlay we head up north for a game between the Seattle Mariners and the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. As impressive as the Phillies starting rotation has been, the Mariners bullpen has been just as impressive, owning an MLB best 2.40 ERA. While it may seem counterintuitive siding with the over in this game considering the Mariners are the most profitable team when betting the under (18-7-1) I see value in the form of early runs. George Kirby has been up and down through 5 starts and has a 5.33 ERA entering tonight. Kirby posted a 5-inning shutout his last time out, but he has also endured outings in which he gave up 8 and 5 earned runs in 4.0 innings or less. Arizona has a much better lineup than the Colorado lineup Kirby faced his last time out, and Arizona trails only the Dodgers in runs scored this season. The Diamondbacks have already played 4 games this season in which they plated at least 12 runs.
The Mariners rank just 23rd in runs scored on the season, but they have been much more consistent at the plate of late. Seattle has scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 5 games and the will be going up against an inexperienced major-league pitcher in D-backs starter Slade Cecconi. Cecconi started his season with the Triple-A Reno Aces, where he posted a 4.58 ERA across 19.2 innings of work. His first start with Arizona went well, giving up just 2 earned runs on 2 hits in 6.0 innings — but he doesn’t accumulate a high amount of strikeouts and has been susceptible to home runs in the minors. This matchup appears to favor each lineup and I’ll play the alternative total at 7.5 runs.
