Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
All 30 teams are on the schedule this Saturday across the MLB, starting off in Detroit at 1:10 PM ET and wrapping up in Arizona exactly 9 hours later with a matchup between the Diamondbacks and the Miami Marlins. For Saturday’s Mega Parlay I have a little bit of everything – a favorite to win on the run line, an underdog to win outright, and an underdog to stay just within striking distance.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at 9/1 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Astros -1.5 (+110)
Reds +1.5 (-114)
Marlins ML (+154)
MLB Parlay Odds: +901
Houston Astros -1.5 over Oakland Athletics (+110)
It’s crazy to think that we are over 50 games into the MLB season and the Oakland A’s are 3 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL Wild Card standings. To Houstons’ credit, they have played much better baseball of late and are 11-4 over their last 15 games. Yesterday, the Astros won 6-3 in game 1 over the A’s and are now a perfect 5-0 against Oakland, outscoring them 28-7. Meanwhile, the A’s have begun to cool off after starting the season on a much stronger note than most, including myself, expected from them. Oakland is just 2-10 across their last 12 games and their offense has gone missing. The A’s have scored an average of 3.2 runs per game over their last 12 games while scoring more than 4 runs just 2 times.
Rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti takes the ball for the Astros this afternoon in his 8th start of the season. Arrighetti enters this start with a 7.16 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, and an opposing batting average of .313. The numbers don’t look great on paper, but Arrighetti pitched well against this A’s lineup less than 2 weeks ago after limiting them to just 2 runs over 5.0 innings of work. Arrighetti also could be in store for some positive regression as his 4.74 xERA is well below his actual ERA to this point. Countering for the A’s is lefty JP Sears, who’s 4.59 xERA is pretty close to that of Arrighetti. Sears pitched well against Houston on May 14, surrendering 1 runs across 5.0 innings, but his underlying metrics are concerning. Sears ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and ground-ball rate. The Astros should do more damage the second time around, especially when their lineup is posting the 3rd best wRC+ (117) in baseball.
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-114)
The Cincinnati Reds look to keep things rolling tonight after securing a 9-6 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the series opener last night. The Reds are just 2-3 against the Dodgers this season, but they have some decent betting value in game with their ace Hunter Greene on the hill. Greene is putting together a solid season now in his 3rd year with Cincinnati, owning a 3.22 ERA across his first 10 starts. Greene has career-best marks in xERA, xSLG, xBA, and barrel rate, all of which rank in the 90th percentile or better across the MLB. Greene’s last start came against this same Dodger lineup just 6 days ago in which he completed 6.1 innings with 8 strikeouts while surrendering just 2 runs.
Walker Buehler’s last start came 7 days ago against the Reds as he tossed 6.0 scoreless innings on just 78 pitches. It marked just the 3rd Major League start for Buehler since June 10 of 2022 after undergoing multiple elbow surgeries. While Buehler looked good in his last outing, I’m hesitant to back him just yet, especially after he allowed 6 earned runs and 3 home runs in his first 2 starts. I’m not willing to go all-in on the Reds and back them on the moneyline, mainly because their lineup ranks 27th in wRC+ and last in batting average, but I believe they can keep this game close having Greene on the hill. Neither of these team’s bullpens have performed great this season, which could potentially open the door for Cincinnati in the later innings.
Miami Marlins ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (+154)
The final game of Saturday’s slate comes out of Arizona between the Diamondbacks and the visiting Miami Marlins. The Marlins may be just 18-34 on the year, but they have wins in 7 of their last 9 games, including a 3-0 win over the D-bacs on Friday. Miami hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard in these wins, but their pitching has been phenomenal over the last 10 days or so. Over their last 9 games, the Marlins have posted 5 shutouts while their bullpen ranks 7th in FIP over the last 2 weeks. Meanwhile, the D-backs are 3-4 over their last 7 games while giving up just over 5 runs per game in that span. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup of Sixto Sanchez and Jordan Montgomery appears close to even in my eyes, making the Marlins a nice value pick in this spot.
Sixto Sanchez’ career has already been a whirlwind for the just 25-year-old right-hander out of the Dominican Republic. Sanchez had a productive rookie campaign in 2020, albeit he pitched in just 39.0 innings, but he posted a 3.46 ERA and 2.99 xERA. Since that impressive start, Sanchez has dealt with numerous injuries that caused him to miss all of 2021, 2022, and limited him to just 1 rehab start in 2023. Finally back now in 2024, Sanchez has made 5 starts and 12 total appearances for the Marlins while posting a 6.41 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. That being said, Sanchez has an xERA of 4.65 and induces plenty of ground-ball outs. It’s also worth noting that the D-backs rank 25th with a 93 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, giving Sanchez a slight advantage.
Compare Sanchez to left-hander Jordan Montgomery of the D-backs, and they are much closer than you might expect when you see Montgomery’s 4.98 ERA next to the 6.41 ERA of Sanchez. Sanchez’ xERA is better than Montgomery, who has regressed in plenty of areas this season. Montgomery has career-worst marks in xERA and strikeout rate, where he’s striking out just 14.0% of his batters. Miami doesn’t have the most dangerous lineup in baseball, but they should be able to put enough balls in play against Montgomery to wreak some havoc. Montgomery has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, and I like the Marlins to continue along this trend.
