Kyle Lupas
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Saturday brings a loaded 16-game slate, starting out in the Bronx with the Yankees and Rays, a doubleheader at Wrigley Field with the Cubs and Marlins, and a nightcap in San Diego between the Padres and Blue Jays. I’m keeping Saturday’s parlay fairly simple and backing 3 teams on the money line, with 2 of them slated as underdogs. Below I’ll provide a breakdown of each individual leg and don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for every game today.
Tigers ML (+110)
Mets ML (+154)
Diamondbacks ML (-120)
MLB Parlay Odds: +877
Detroit Tigers ML over Minnesota Twins (+110)
Rookie right fielder Wenceel Perez delivered the go-ahead base knock in the top of the ninth inning last night, leading the Tigers to a 5-4 win over the Twins. It capped a 3-for-5 night for Perez and extended the Twins losing streak to 5 games. Despite the 5-game losing skid, Minnesota enters this afternoon’s game as slight favorites when Bailey Ober takes the mound. Ober will make his 4th start of the season and is coming off back-to-back starts totaling 11.0 innings in which he allowed just 1 earned run on a combined 6 hits. It’s a major improvement from his first start against the Royals after giving up 8 earned runs on 9 hits and 3 home runs in just 1.1 innings. Ober tossed 6.0 scoreless frames against the Tigers on April 14, but Detroit rallied back with 4 runs in the eighth inning and won 4-3. A second look at Ober in under a week should provide a slight advantage to Detroits’ lineup.
The Tigers will counter with a right-hander of their own in Reese Olson, also making his 4th start and posting a 3.86 ERA. Much like Ober, Olson has put together 2 outstanding starts along with a dud. Olson’s most recent outing came against the Rangers, where he recorded 8 strikeouts and held Texas to 1 earned run on 6 hits over 6.1 innings. Olson has yet to face this Twins’ lineup this season, but he should find success given the poor start for the Twins offensively. Entering the day, Minnesota ranks 28th in runs scored, 29th in team batting average, and 28th in OPS. I don’t envision the Twins putting much together at the plate and whenever Olson is relieved in this game, the Tigers have the best bullpen in baseball at the moment, posting a 1.67 ERA. I’ll back Detroit in a game they should probably be favored in.
New York Mets ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (+154)
If you told me that one of these teams was on a 9-2 stretch while the other was on a 2-6 skid, I would not have guessed the Mets would be the team on a run. New York began their season with 5 consecutive losses, but are now 3 games over .500 and on a 5-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Dodgers lost their last 2 series against the Padres and Nationals and are in danger of dropping a 3rd consecutive series after falling 9-4 to the Mets yesterday. The Dodgers are without a doubt the more talented team in this series, but sometimes in baseball you have to ride the team that’s hot, especially when getting them at plus money.
Over the past 11 games, the Mets are averaging 6.73 runs per game and plated 9 runs in back-to-back games. Their lineup has an opportunity to stay hot at the plate when Dodgers’ starter Gavin Stone takes the hill for his 4th start of the season. Stone owns a 6.14 ERA with opposing lineups hitting .305 across 14.2 innings. Stone is in store for some positive regression since his xERA is much lower at 3.54, but he’s facing a dangerous lineup at the moment. Los Angeles has a dangerous lineup themselves, but they’ve been held awfully quiet of late. Over their last 8 games, the Dodgers are averaging just 3.88 runs per game and will face a pitcher who’s allowed just 1 earned run in 12.0 innings this season. Mets’ starting pitcher Jose Butto has turned out to be a pleasant surprise through a pair of quality starts. Butto’s barrel rate ranks in the 86th percentile while his 34.1% strikeout rate falls in the 90th percentile. It’s hard to say how long Butto can keep this up, but for our sake let’s hope it’s for at least 1 more game.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML over San Francisco Giants (-120)
The final leg of this parlay takes us to San Francisco, where a Diamondbacks victory would take them to .500. If Arizona brings the same approach they had at the plate in last night’s game, they should have no issues whatsoever. Last night, the D-backs plated 17 runs on 22 hits with 8 starters recording at least 2 hits. I like their chances to have another productive day when they face 22-year-old left-hander, Kyle Harrison, who’s compiled just 57.2 innings and 11 starts through 2 major league seasons. Through 4 outings this season, Harrison has been pretty consistent in what he’ll give you, going at least 5.0 innings in all 4 starts while allowing at least 3 earned runs in his last 3 tries. One stat that jumps out is that Harrison has already given up 5 home runs with at least 1 per start. Against left-handed pitching, the D-backs lead the MLB with 9 home runs and a .314 team batting average. This is not an ideal matchup for Harrison.
Arizona will also have a significant starting pitching advantage as Zac Gallen takes the ball for his 5th start. The D-back’s ace, who finished 3rd in Cy Young voting last season, is picking up exactly where he left off, posting a 1.64 ERA that’s good for 4th place among NL starters. Much like Blake Snell who started for the Giants last night, Gallen always seems to outperform what his underlying metrics would suggest. Last season, Gallen’s hard-hit rate was at 46.2% and in the 5th percentile and is once again in the 5th percentile this season, but even higher at 52.7%. Despite consistently giving up hard contact, Gallen has given up just 4 earned runs and has yet to allow a home run through 22.0 innings. Gallen’s ability to avoid barrels while striking out 29.2% of the batters he faces is the reason for his success and I trust him in this spot. Back the D-backs with their ace on the mound and hope they continue to give lefty pitching a hard time.
