Kyle Lupas
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We are just 2 days from the All-Star break, but before we enjoy the home run derby on Monday and the All-Star game on Tuesday, teams still have to finish out their weekend series which includes a 16-game slate today with the Cubs and Cardinals scheduled for a double-header in St. Louis. Today’s action begins in Detroit with the Tigers and Dodgers at 1:10 PM ET and concludes in Arizona with the Diamondbacks hosting the Toronto Blue Jays at 10:10 PM ET.
Saturday’s mega parlay features a home team on the run line, a road underdog to win outright, and an under pick in what could be forecasted as a pitcher’s duel. Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +863 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Reds -1.5 (+136)
Nationals ML (+112)
Royals vs Red Sox Under 9 (-108)
MLB Parlay Odds: +863
Cincinnati Reds -1.5 over Miami Marlins (+136)
The Cincinnati Reds are at the bottom of the NL Central standings entering their game against the Marlins this afternoon, but the National League is wide open as we approach the break, with Cincinnati among a group of 6 teams within 3 games of the final Wild Card spot. The Reds have played sound baseball here in July, posting a 7-4 record that includes a 3-game sweep over the Yankees. It’s also worth mentioning that their last 5 wins have all been by at least 3 runs. At the same time, the Miami Marlins are 30 games under .500 and well on their way to losing over 100 games on the year. Miami enters Saturday on a 4-game losing streak with just 2 wins in their last 11 games.
Perhaps the biggest flaw with Miami this season has been the performance of their starting, which is surprising to say considering their rotation finished top-10 in ERA the past 2 seasons. This season, Marlins’ starters rank 29th with a 5.10 ERA, and right-hander Edward Cabrera, who will toe the rubber this afternoon, owns a 6.84 ERA across his first 6 starts of the season. Cabrera has elite strikeout stuff (30.7% K rate), but he has walked 13.2% of his batters and has failed to get through 5.0 full innings in his last 4 starts.
Cincinnati’s rotation has improved significantly from just a season ago, much of which could be attributed to strong starts from Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott. Abbott, the 25-year-old left-hander from Virginia, has built upon a strong rookie season, posting a 3.06 ERA across 18 starts this season. The biggest difference in Abbott’s approach this season has been his ability to induce weaker contact than he did a season ago. Abbott’s hard-hit rate in 2023 was 42.5%, which ranked in the 23rd percentile, but this season, Abbott’s hard-hit rate falls in the 90th percentile at 31.4%. The Marlins are the worst lineup in baseball against left-handers with a wRC+ of 68. Look for Abbott and the Reds to carry some momentum through this series and into the break.
Washington Nationals ML over Milwaukee Brewers (+112)
One of the teams that the Reds are chasing in the NL Central are the division leading Milwaukee Brewers, who hold an 8.0-game lead over Cincinnati and play host to the Washington Nationals this afternoon for game 2 of their 3-game set. The Nationals on the other hand are 18.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and 6.0 games back in the Wild Card standings as we approach the third week of July. Washington snapped their 5-game losing skid with a 5-2 win over Milwaukee yesterday, and I’m backing the Nats to steal another win at American Family Field this afternoon.
My main reason for backing the Nationals over a much better Brewers ballclub this afternoon is entirely due to the recent return of 2015 Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel’s contract was picked up by Milwaukee on June 26 after the left-handed veteran posted a 3.93 ERA with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate. While the Brewers have won all 3 games Keuchel has started this season, the past few seasons have been extremely rough for the 2-time All-Star. Since 2021, Keuchel owns a 6.21 ERA over 274.0 innings and has been a pitcher I’ve routinely faded during that period. I intend on doing the same here this afternoon.
Rookie, left-hander Mitchell Parker takes the ball for the Nationals and has performed quite well thus far. The 24-year-old owns a 3.44 ERA across 16 starts and has proven to be fairly consistent. Parker has given up more than 3 earned runs on just 2 occasions this season and he has completed a full 5.0 innings on the hill in 14 of those 16 outings. The Brewers rank around league average against lefties in terms of wRC+ so I’m expecting a fairly even matchup here for Parker. The risk in this game lies with Keuchel, so I’ll back the Nats with plus money.
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Under 9 (-108)
The final game of our parlay takes us out to Fenway Park for an American League matchup between the Red Sox and the visiting Kansas City Royals. Both teams enter today’s game with nearly identical records, with Boston’s win percentage 0.001% higher than Kansas City. Kansas City can leapfrog Boston in the standings with a win today and move into the third and final Wild Card spot ahead of their game on Sunday. A win for the Royals would also extend their current 4-game winning streak. The Red Sox have played competitive baseball themselves of late, having won 8 of their last 11 games. Safe to say this could be an important series for a pair of ballclubs who are playing good baseball entering the break while being extremely close in the standings.
Rather than pick a side in this matchup, I’m eyeing the game total, which currently sits at 9 runs. This total appears high given the starting pitching matchup of Seth Lugo and Kutter Crawford, each of whom have performed extremely well for their respective teams this season, despite not having the strongest advanced metrics. Beginning with Lugo, the 34-year-old right-hander was just named to his first All-Star Game after spending 9 seasons in the Majors. The honor was well deserved for Lugo, who owns an MLB-best 2.21 ERA across 19 starts. While Lugo’s 3.84 xERA is a run and a half higher than his actual ERA, it hasn’t shown quite yet. Lugo has managed to keep hitters off-balanced with his 8-pitch arsenal – yes I said 8. You name a pitch and Lugo probably throws it. I’ll back the vet to navigate through this Kansas City lineup.
Crawford does not have as deep of a bag as Lugo might have, but he still possesses a 5-pitch arsenal and produces major strikeout stuff. Through 18 starts, Crawford owns a 3.24 ERA compared to a 3.86 xERA, and has a 32.6% chase rate that falls in the 86th percentile. Crawford has 7 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 outings, all of which have gone down as quality starts. If Lugo and Crawford pitch the way that they have for most of the season, this has the makings of a low-scoring game. I’ll back the under at 9 runs.
