Kyle Lupas
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After a fun All-Star break in the MLB, the regular season resumed yesterday with 28 of 30 teams in action. The Cardinals and Braves got 1 extra day off after their game was postponed due to weather, and will play a double-header today in Atlanta. That being said, we have a loaded 16-game slate on the schedule for Saturday, beginning in New York and ending in Seattle.
Saturday’s mega parlay features a pair of favorites on the run line and a play on the under in a game that previews to be low scoring. Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the reasoning for my picks. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +860 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Phillies -1.5 (+100)
Orioles vs Rangers Under 8 (-120)
Mariners -1.5 (+162)
MLB Parlay Odds: +860
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (+100)
The Philadelphia Phillies may have the best record in baseball, but July has been a tad shaky since their series with the Braves in Atlanta. The Phillies dropped 2 out of 3 games in that series, returned home to capture a 3-game sweep over the Dodgers, but then lost 2 of 3 to the A’s, before dropping the first game of a 3-game set with the Pirates yesterday. One thing that sticks out in those losses is their inability to limit runs. In those 5 losses, opposing teams have scored at least 5 runs, and their rotation has not been quite as strong.
On the other hand, the Pirates have been in a groove of late, winning 7 of their last 8 games. Despite the trajectory of these teams at the current moment, I have to side with the Phillies to even the series. Cristopher Sanchez will be taking the ball for Philadelphia and he has been superb in his 4th season. Sanchez owns a 2.96 ERA across 18 starts, giving up 4 earned runs or more on just 3 occasions. The consistency from Sanchez allows the Phillies to stick around in nearly every outing he toes the rubber, and his 59.9% ground-ball rate is one of the best marks in the league. Countering for the Pirates is Luis L. Ortiz, who has split time as a reliever and starter this season. Ortiz has appeared in 25 games for the Pirates with a 2.84 ERA compared to a 3.67 xERA. The Phillies should be able to do some damage against Ortiz as he ranks below league average in chase rate, whiff rate, and barrel rate. I’ll back Philadelphia to even the series and win this game by multiple runs.
Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers Under 8 (-120)
The next leg of this parlay takes place in Arlington, between the Texas Rangers and the visiting Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles surpassed tonight’s listed total of 8 runs all by themselves yesterday with a 9-1 victory, but tonight should be lower-scoring on both sides. The starting pitching matchup for tonight features a pair of right-handers in Grayson Rodriguez and Max Scherzer. Rodriguez has turned in a solid sophomore campaign thus far, posting a 3.88 ERA across 17 starts and nearly 100 innings. I’d expect a solid outing tonight, especially when considering the Rangers rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Baltimore could very well experience their own troubles at the plate when going up against future hall of famer Max Scherzer. Scherzer, now in his 17th season in the Majors, has looked strong since returning from offseason back surgery that sidelined him through mid-June. In Scherzers’ 5 starts this season, he has managed to go at least 5.0 innings in all but his last outing, and owns a 2.96 ERA. The strikeout numbers for Scherzer are down, but he is walking just 3.8% of his batters while posting a hard-hit rate and chase rate well above league average. Expect this to be a low-scoring game early on and throughout, as each teams’ bullpens own sub 4.10 xFIP. I’ll back the under.
Seattle Mariners -1.5 over Houston Astros (+162)
Our last leg in this parlay features the last game of the day, with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park. After struggling for much of the early season, the Astros have been among the hottest teams in baseball of late and are now in first place in the AL West after their 3-0 win over Seattle yesterday. Seattle on the other hand, desperately needs a win as they enter tonight on a 4-game losing skid in which they scored a total of 8 runs. The one thing that Seattle has going for them in this game is the fact that they will be going up against left-hander Framber Valdez for the third time this season. Valdez owns a 3.66 ERA across 16 starts this season, but in his 2 outings against the Mariners, he has given up 8 earned runs across 11.1 innings. Valdez also owns a 48.9% hard-hit rate which falls in the 2nd percentile and is striking out fewer batters than he has in any other season.
I have much more confidence tonight in Seattle’s starting pitcher with George Kirby on the hill. Kirby owns a 3.29 ERA with an identical xERA across 20 starts this season, and has silenced the Astros twice so far. In Kirby’s 2 outings against Houston, he surrendered a combined 2 earned runs on 10 hits across 12.0 innings. Kirby has also been pitching some of his best baseball since the end of May. Across 9 starts since May 29, Kirby owns a 2.11 ERA with 8 quality outings. His lone outing that did not qualify went 5.0 innings while allowing 2 earned runs. The Mariners do not have a deep lineup, but Kirby has proven he can quiet this Houston lineup, whereas Valdez has seen some struggles. I’ll back the home team to grab the win and cover the runline.
