Kyle Lupas
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Saturday offers another jam-packed slate across Major League Baseball, with 16 games on the schedule as the Rockies and Giants are set for a double-header. The day begins in Toronto with the Blue Jays hosting the Texas Rangers, and comes to a close in Los Angeles with a game between the Angels and the visiting Athletics.
Saturday’s mega parlay features a pair of underdogs and a play on the under in the Mariners vs White Sox game. Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the reasoning for my picks. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +847 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Cubs ML (+110)
Mariners vs White Sox Under 7.5 (-120)
Pirates ML (+146)
MLB Parlay Odds: +847
Chicago Cubs ML over Kansas City Royals (+110)
The Chicago Cubs look to snap a 3-game losing skid tonight when they take on the Kansas City Royals, who beat the Cubs 6-0 last night. Chicago was playing well prior to the All-Star break, getting a series win over the Angels, sweeping the Orioles in a 3-game road set, and splitting their series with the Cardinals, but have since peeled off. Since the break, the Cubs are 2-5 and 7 games below .500. Meanwhile, the Royals are 10 games over .500 and 5-2 since returning from the break. Despite the current trajectories, I like the Cubs to rebound tonight with left-hander Shota Imanaga on the hill going up against Seth Lugo for the Royals.
Imanaga has been a bright spot for the Cubs this season, owning a 2.86 ERA against a 3.40 xERA across 18 starts. Other than 2 blowup outings in which Imanaga allowed a combined 17 earned runs, the southpaw has not given up more than 3 earned runs in his other 16 starts. Imanaga is coming off a career-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing against the Diamondbacks, and his chase rate and walk rate both rank in the 95th percentile or higher. The Cubs also have a significant bullpen advantage in this matchup, as their bullpen owns a 1.12 ERA over the last 30 days.
The Royals will counter Imanaga with 34-year-old right-hander Seth Lugo. Lugo was rightly named an All-Star this season and owns a remarkable 2.38 ERA across 21 starts. Lugo’s incredible 9-pitch arsenal has kept batters guessing at the plate, but metrics suggest looming regression in his future. With a 3.86 xERA, nearly a run and a half higher than his actual ERA, it seems only a matter of time before Lugo faces some hardships. Aside from his walk rate, Lugo falls below the league average in nearly every other measurable metric, meaning there exists a certain amount of risk when backing him. For that reason, I’ll back the safer pitcher in Imanaga and a bullpen that has been lights out of late.
Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox Under 7.5 (-120)
For the next leg of this parlay, we head to Chicago where the White Sox are hosting the Seattle Mariners. The White Sox are unarguably the worst team in baseball this season at 27-79, and are now in the grips of a 12-game losing streak. With 2 more losses, they would match their 14-game losing skid that ran from May 22 until June 6. During their 12-game losing skid, the White Sox offense has been non-existent, scoring an average of 1.7 runs per game and eclipsing 2 runs just twice. Seattle has not been lighting up the scoreboard themselves, being held to 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 9 games, before exploding for 10 runs yesterday. This play on the under does not have so much to do with the starting pitching matchup, but the lack of production from each lineup.
That being said, the starting pitching matchup for tonight is not particularly favorable to either lineup with Erick Feddie and Bryan Woo taking the mound for their respective teams. Feddie has pitched extremely well for Chicago this season and owns a career-best 2.98 ERA across 20 starts. His 3.65 xERA is higher than his actual ERA, but it’s a major improvement from past seasons where his xERA hovered over 5.5 runs. Woo has been just as serviceable for the Mariners with a 2.54 ERA and 2.51 xERA through 10 outings. There is also much more upside to Woo, as his xERA, walk rate, and barrel rate all rank in the 97th percentile or better. Considering we have a pair of right-handers on the mound against lineups that rank 29th and 30th in wRC+ against righties over the past month, it’s difficult to envision a high-scoring game in Chicago.
Pittsburgh Pirates ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (+146)
Last but not least, we finish out this parlay in Arizona, where the Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are the second-largest underdog on today’s slate, but it’s undeniable that they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past few weeks. Since July 8, the Pirates are 10-4 with series wins over the Brewers, White Sox, Phillies, and Cardinals. That being said, the D-backs have been equally as productive, going 13-6 since July 3 with series wins over the Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Royals, while also beating the Pirates 4-3 last night.
The D-backs might be overvalued in this game however. Brandon Pfaadt is taking the mound for Arizona, and although he owns a 3.74 ERA through 20 starts, his ERA was at 4.45 as recently as June 25. A string of 4 solid outings has brought this number down significantly, but Pfaadt gave up 4 earned runs or more in 6 of his first 16 starts, making it difficult to predict which version of Pfaadt the D-backs will get on any given night. Marco Gonzales, albeit he has just 5 starts on the year, has been consistent for the Pirates. Gonzales has gone at least 5.0 innings in 4 of those outings while surrendering no more than 2 earned runs. The 5.45 xERA is a major outlier for Gonzales, but he doesn’t necessarily have to go deep into the game to provide value. The Pirates’ bullpen ranks 5th in ERA and 4th in xFIP in the month of July, and 5.0 innings from Gonzales should be more than enough before a call to the pen. I’ll back Pittsburgh as a good value pick with an opportunity to even the series.
