Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
Saturday brings another loaded MLB slate with plenty of intriguing matchups and pitcher’s duels. After studying the 15 games scheduled for today, I’ve narrowed the field down to my 3 favorite plays that when parlayed pay out at generous +847 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay.
Brewers vs Astros Over 8.5 (+100)
Padres ML (+106)
Red Sox -1.5 (+130)
MLB Parlay Odds: +847
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Over 8.5 (+100)
Following a disappointing start to the Houston Astros’ season, they appear to finally be rounding into form in mid-May. Houston is still 5 games under .500 (20-25) but is riding a 6-game winning streak with wins in 8 of its last 9 games. Offense has never been an issue for the Astros, as they rank top-5 in wRC+, BA, OBP and SLG. Over their last 9 games they have averaged just over 5.2 runs per game and have a strong chance to get back to .500 with upcoming series against the Angels and Athletics. The Milwaukee Brewers have been just as explosive at the plate, ranking within the top 3 in wRC+, runs, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Over their last 8 games Milwaukee has actually outperformed Houston by averaging 6.2 runs per game.
The 2 offenses combined for 9 runs on 17 hits in last night’s affair and should continue to thrive in Houston this evening. Right-hander Bryse Wilson will take the mound for Milwaukee in his 6th start and 12th appearance, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. While Wilson’s numbers are strong, his underlying metrics suggest serious looming regression. Wilson’s xERA of 4.84 is over 2 runs higher than his actual ERA and he ranks in the 29th percentile or lower in chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Equally concerning are the underlying metrics of Justin Verlander, who ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and ground-ball rate. Verlander tossed a 2-hit, 7.0-inning shutout gem against the Tigers in his last outing, but he also surrendered 7 runs on 8 hits and 3 home runs to the Yankees in the start prior. There are too many question marks with these starters right now and both bullpens rank in the bottom third of the league in FIP. Expect the offenses to shine in this game.
San Diego Padres over Atlanta Braves (+106)
The San Diego Padres have been a difficult team to gauge this season and the month of May has been a whirlwind to say the least. The Padres won 3 consecutive series against the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Dodgers to start the month and then got swept by the 15-29 Colorado Rockies. Then in typical Padre fashion, they beat the Atlanta Braves 3-1 last night to open their 4-game set. The Padres are 12-9 against teams with winning records but just 11-15 against teams with losing records. I like the value here with the Padres, especially with their ace Yu Darvish on the hill. Through 8 starts, the 37-year-old right-hander owns a 2.43 ERA alongside a 0.98 WHIP. The underlying metrics don’t suggest a ton of regression either, with Darvish’s xERA listed at 3.17. The Braves are a difficult lineup to navigate, but Darvish is in a groove and hasn’t allowed a single run over his last 3 outings. It’s also worth noting that San Diego ranks slightly ahead of Atlanta in wRC+, so the lineups are much closer in production than one might expect.
Taking the hill for the Braves is 24-year-old right-hander Bryce Elder, who has experienced a tough start to the season after being a reliable arm in Atlanta over his first 2 seasons. Through 4 starts, Elder owns a 4.79 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP with opposing lineups hitting .317 against him. The underlying metrics for Elder raise plenty of concerns as he’s actually outperformed his 5.24 xERA. Elder ranks in the 27th percentile or worse in nearly every category other than walk rate (43rd percentile) and ground-ball rate (92nd percentile). Elder’s 47% hard-hit rate and .289 xBA is deeply troubling against a San Diego lineup featuring Fernando Tatis, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts at the top. With each team’s lineup and bullpen performing similarly, the Padres have a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup. I’ll back Darvish and the Padres here given the pitching matchup.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (+130)
Our third and final leg of this parlay takes us to St. Louis, where the Boston Red Sox look to snap their current 3-game losing skid, including a 10-6 loss to the Cardinals yesterday. Although Boston is now 1 game under .500, its starting pitching this season has been tremendous. Boston’s starting rotation owns an American League best 2.76 ERA, led primarily by Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. Luckily for the Red Sox, Crawford will be taking the ball tonight for his 10th start of the season while posting a 2.24 ERA alongside a 1.11 WHIP. Crawford has taken incredible strides this season, posting career-best marks in xERA, hard-hit rate, xSLG and barrel rate. Crawford should find some success against a Cardinal lineup that ranks 21st with a 94 wRC+, while also ranking in the bottom third of the league in runs scored and BA.
Boston ranks middle of the pack in wRC+, runs scored, and BA, but they have a favorable matchup with Miles Mikolas on the hill for St. Louis. Mikolas is enduring his worst season on the mound since joining the Cardinals in 2018, posting a 6.19 ERA and .311 opposing BA across his first 9 starts. Mikolas has surrendered at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his starts and has given up at least 5 earned runs on 4 separate occasions. The underlying metrics for Mikolas don’t offer up much hope, either, posting career-worst marks in hard-hit rate, xBA and xSLG. The one saving grace for the Cardinals is their bullpen, which ranks 2nd in xFIP — but it may be too little too late if the Red Sox put up a crooked number in the first few innings against Mikolas. This is a favorable spot for the Red Sox to snap their losing streak and I’ll play them on the run line given the early struggles shown by Mikolas.
