Kyle Lupas
Show Bio
With the Wild Card in the rear view and an unprecedented sweep in every series, we move on to the divisional round where we’re destined to see much closer matchups. We have some intriguing storylines in each one of these matchups, including the Rangers and Orioles playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2016, the Twins finally snapping their 18-game postseason losing streak to take on the defending champs, and two series featuring divisional opponents with the Braves hosting the Phillies and the Dodgers welcoming the Diamondbacks.
Keep reading below as I break down 3 of my favorite picks to parlay with a payout at +827 odds. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Astros ML (-155)
Phillies ML (+175)
Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
Parlay Odds (+827)
Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (-155)
The Houston Astros have undoubtedly been one of the most successful ballclubs since 2017 and their playoff results speak for themselves. They’ve appeared in the ALCS 6 consecutive seasons and have brought 2 World Series Championships back to Houston. So what makes Houston such a force in October? The formula is quite simple – they don’t play from behind in the divisional round. Since 2017, not only have the Astros won the first game of every ALDS they’ve appeared in – they’ve gone up 2-0 each time. On the other end of the spectrum, the Minnesota Twins just broke an 18-game postseason losing streak after sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Minnesota’s strong starting rotation and ability to hit the long ball could create problems for the Astros, but I don’t believe that happens here in Game 1.
The Astros have a tremendous edge this afternoon in the starting pitching department as 40-year-old Justin Verlander takes the mound. Verlander had himself another solid season after pitching to a 3.22 ERA across 27 starts and has a tremendous amount of postseason experience. Throughout his career, spanning 18 seasons, Verlander has pitched in 35 postseason games with a 3.64 ERA. In the ALDS, Verlander has been a force, owning a 3.08 ERA across 9 outings with an 8-1 record. The Twins counter with Bailey Ober, and while he had a solid season in Minnesota after posting a 3.43 ERA, he struggled to the point of being optioned to Triple-A at the end of August. Ober has great underlying metrics, including a 33.5% chase rate and 5.0% walk rate, but this will be the first postseason start of his career. I think the Twins give Houston a hard time in this series, but given Houston’s history of ALDS success paired with Verlander on the mound, I have to back the home team in Game 1.
Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (+175)
In maybe the most intriguing series of the 4, we get an NLDS rematch from last season between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. Each team has represented the National League in the World Series the past 2 seasons, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the winner of this series go on to win the NL pennant. Last season, it was the Phillies winning in 4 games and Atlanta admittedly looked rusty after receiving a first-round bye and an extended break. The Braves haven’t played since October 1, but they’ve taken the approach of allowing fans to watch their simulated games to increase the intensity of their workouts while waiting on their opponent. Tonight, we see if their strategy pays off when Spencer Strider takes the hill.
Strider is undoubtably a power pitcher in every sense of the word. His 4-seam fastball sits at 97.3 mph and he recorded 44 more strikeouts this season than any other pitcher across baseball. Put it simply, when Strider is on, he can create havoc for an opposing lineup. That being said, Strider hasn’t pitched well over his last 6 outings and owns a 5.67 ERA in that span. Additionally, Strider has just 1 postseason start, which came against the Phillies last season in Game 3 of the NLDS. The Phillies went on to win 9-1 and Strider surrendered 5 earned runs across just 2.1 innings of work. For the Phillies, they’ll go with left-hander Ranger Suarez making his first start since September 27. Suarez has seen some regression this season with a 4.18 ERA across 22 starts, but his postseason performance last season was a huge reason for the Phillies’ run to the World Series. Suarez made 5 appearances (3 starts) last postseason and allowed just 2 earned runs across 14.2 innings. There’s no question that Strider is the better pitcher in this game tonight, but Suarez has pitched in some big postseason spots and the Phillies can keep up with this deep Atlanta lineup. The price is too good to pass up.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 over Arizona Diamondbacks (+105)
The Los Angeles Dodgers finished their season with an 8-5 record against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 7 of which came by at least 2 runs. I’m taking an almost identical approach to this game as I did with the Houston Astros. Much like Houston, the Dodgers have been one of the best ballclubs for an extended period. Dating back to 2016, Los Angeles has appeared in 3 World Series, won the World Series in 2020, and have appeared in the NLCS 5 of the last 7 years. Their secret to their success is the same as Houston, jump out to an early series lead in the NLDS. Since 2016, the Dodgers are 6-1 in Game 1 of the NLDS, and I have them taking Game 1 at Dodger Stadium tonight.
Clayton Kershaw takes the ball for the Dodgers, and his postseason struggles have been well documented. In 38 postseason appearances, Kershaw owns a 4.22 ERA compared to his career regular season 2.48 ERA. While the postseason numbers haven’t always been there, I like Kershaw to put together a strong outing against a team he’s familiar with. Kershaw has pitched against the D-backs 3 times this season, with his last outing coming on August 29 where he allowed just 1 earned run across 5.0 innings. Since the beginning of June, Kershaw has been completely dominating opposing lineups and has allowed more than 2 earned runs just once over his last 13 outings. The outlier was a game against Miami in which he surrendered 3 earned runs in 5.0 innings. At the age of 34, Merrill Kelly makes his first postseason start of his career tonight. Kelly and Zac Gallen have been a tremendous 1-2 punch out of the D-backs rotation, and Kelly is coming off a season in which he posted a career-best 3.29 ERA over 30 starts. That being said, Kelly lacks postseason experience and the Dodgers roughed him up for 7 earned runs on 12 hits across 5.0 innings back on August 29. Give me the Dodgers to cover the run line in Game 1.
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