Exactly one week ago, I hit a +989 mega parlay to start the weekend. Today, I’m back to do it again. It’s a full slate of games on Saturday with action starting at 4:05 PM in the Nation’s Capital and ending with a 9:10 PM first pitch between the Braves and Dodgers. Here is my 3-team MLB mega parlay at over 7/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook, and make sure to also check out all of today’s MLB predictions.
Rangers -1.5 (+110)
Orioles -1.5 (+114)
Giants-Padres Alternate Under 7.5 (+106)
Parlay odds: +782
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (+110) over Minnesota Twins
Dallas Keuchel has found a way back to the big leagues, and to my surprise, he’s actually been pretty good. His first two starts were the type I had come to expect from Keuchel as he surrendered 7 runs, 14 hits and 4 walks in 6.2 innings. However, he bounced back in a big way as he took a no-hitter into the 6th inning in his third outing against the Pirates. Following that fantastic start, the former Cy Young winner threw 5 innings of shutout baseball while giving up just 5 hits to the Rangers, the same team he will face on Saturday night. However, I’m still not sold on Keuchel. The lefty got lucky on several different occasions in his last start as he allowed only 5 hits in 19 at-bats (.263), but the Rangers had a .329 xBA. They hit him well, but the ball wasn’t dropping.
I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again – Jordan Montgomery was the best trade deadline pickup. The lefty is 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 5 starts since joining the Rangers. In those 5 outings, the lefty has allowed a .233 batting average with a .232 xBA and just a 4% walk rate. Montgomery made his last start in Minnesota during their previous series against the Twins, and although he allowed just 4 hits in 5.1 innings, 3 runs were able to come across. He was the victim of some good situational hitting by the Twins, but now that the setting has shifted to Texas, I’m backing the Rangers to get their revenge on Keuchel.
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+114) over Arizona Diamondbacks
Kyle Bradish has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season. In fact, Bradish had the 4th lowest ERA since the all-star break before Friday’s games. The 6’3” rising star has a 2.54 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 26% strikeout rate in 8 starts since the All-Star Game. Bradish has allowed more than 2 runs just twice in that 8-game span, but he’s also thrown 3 shutouts during that time too. In 5 starts in August, Bradish surrendered a .189 batting average while striking out 30% of hitters, so he’s been excellent for nearly two months. On Saturday night, he will face a Diamondbacks offense that has been up and down recently, but they’ve had most of their struggles against right-handed pitching.
After his first 21 innings in the big leagues, Slade Cecconi has a 2.57 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. On paper, that sounds fabulous. However, other aspects of his game make me worried. First of all, he has a 3.98 xERA and a 4.02 FIP which indicates that his sub-3 ERA is slightly misleading. Cecconi also has a barrel rate near 10%, a 45.2% hard-hit rate and is getting whiffs less than 20% of the time. Between those three factors, I would have imagined his ERA to be closer to 3.50, and that’s exactly what his xERA and FIP indicates. The Orioles lineup should get to the rookie early and often, so I’m backing the visitors for a multi-run win.
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San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Under 7.5 (+106)
Blake Snell is my NL Cy Young vote and he should be yours too. Before Friday’s games, the lefty had the lowest ERA (2.12) in the second half of the season of any starting pitcher in baseball. However, that’s just scraping the surface of his spectacular season. In 9 starts since the all-star break, the southpaw has limited hitters to a .177 batting average and a .199 xBA with a 29% strikeout rate and a 30% hard-hit rate. The only thing he’s struggled at has been walks since Snell can be wild at times, but he chooses to give up a walk rather than throw hittable pitches when down in the count, and honestly, I don’t hate that. That strategy has been the key to his success this season, and his last start was a perfect example of that. He threw 7 shutout innings against the Cardinals and allowed just 2 hits, but he also walked 5. However, he also struck out 9 batters and worked out of every jam. Until Snell is considered the best pitcher in the National League, he will be underrated to me.
San Francisco’s #1 prospect can barely buy a drink at a bar, but he’s been phenomenal in his first two starts in the big league. Kyle Harrison is just 22 years old and is one of San Francisco’s most exciting pitching prospects in a long time, and so far, he hasn’t disappointed. In his debut, he went 3.1 innings and allowed 2 runs and 5 hits and was obviously nervous. However, his nerves were gone in his second start as the lefty threw 6.1 scoreless innings while allowing just 3 hits and striking out 11. That means in 9.2 innings, he’s held hitters to a .200 xBA with a 40% strikeout rate. Obviously, that’s a small sample size, but I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Harrison. As long as the Padres don’t score 5 or more runs, this alternate under should win with room to spare.
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