Kyle Lupas
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Saturday presents another loaded, 16-game slate with plenty of betting opportunities across Major League Baseball. The day begins in New York at 1:05 PM ET when the Yankees host the Texas Rangers for game 1 of their scheduled double-header, and winds down in Seattle with the Mariners taking on the New York Mets at T-Mobile Park, with first pitch scheduled for 9:40 PM ET.
Saturday’s mega parlay features a favorite on the money line, a favorite to cover the run line, and an over play in Arizona. Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the reasoning behind each pick.
For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +772 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Twins ML (-118)
Brewers -1.5 (+142)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-105)
MLB Parlay Odds: +772
Minnesota Twins ML over Cleveland Guardians (-118)
At 7 consecutive losses, the Cleveland Guardians currently own the longest active losing streak in Major League Baseball. This ballclub won’t come anywhere close to the dreadful, 21-game losing skid displayed by the Chicago White Sox, ultimately resulting in the firing of manager Pedro Grifol, but it has allowed the Minnesota Twins to gain ground in the AL Central. Minnesota is now just 1.5 games back of Cleveland for first place in the division and have gone 7-2 over their last 9 games. The Twins were largely dominated by the Guardians early in the season, going 0-5 entering this series, but have turned the page to win the first 2 games of this 4-game set.
The Twins pitching has been solid this series, holding the Guardians to a combined 5 runs in their double-header yesterday. Tonight they’ll turn the ball over to 23-year-old rookie right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, who has put together a great first season. Woods Richardson owns a 3.87 ERA across 19 starts and ranks in the 75th percentile in hard-hit rate. His numbers have not been nearly as good in the second-half of the season, but the Guardians offense has been stagnant over the past few days.
The Guardians will counter with a young, right-hander of their own in second-year starter Gavin Williams. Williams has only made 7 starts on the season since recovering from an elbow injury, but owns a 4.91 ERA and a hard-hit rate ranking in the 3rd percentile. The strikeout stuff is certainly there for Williams, who ranks in the 74th percentile, and his fastball comes in at 96.8 mph on average, but he’s been hit hard at times. Minnesota owns a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, which doesn’t make for a favorable matchup for Williams. I’ll back the Twins to handle their business today.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Cincinnati Reds (+142)
The Milwaukee Brewers have been putting on an absolute clinic at the plate over the past 4 games, scoring a total of 42 runs. To put that into perspective, the Chicago White Sox scored a total of 74 runs in the entire month of July. The Brewers have not been doing this against weak competition either, as 3 of those games were against the Braves, and last night’s 8 runs came against the Reds, who although are in last place in the NL Central, are only 4-games under .500. Nick Martinez will be tasked with containing this red hot lineup tonight, and while I’d typically like the Reds in this spot, the Brewers have been seeing the ball far too well of late.
Martinez has been putting together a fantastic first season with the Reds, owning a 3.43 ERA to a 3.03 xERA across 84.0 innings. Most of his underlying metrics are extremely impressive as well, including a chase rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all ranking in the 94th percentile or better. What concerns me however is that Martinez does not generate strikeouts and is around the zone too often. The Brewers will be swinging freely given their recent success, and that could spell trouble for Martinez. Rookie right-hander Tobias Myers takes the ball for the Brewers with an impressive 3.02 ERA across 17 appearances. Myers xERA of 4.06 is a full run higher than his actual ERA, but Cincinnati ranks 23rd in wRC+ against right handers this season. I’ll give Milwaukee the edge in this matchup and back them to cover the run line.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-105)
Our final game takes us out to Phoenix for a rematch of the 2023 NLCS between the Diamondbacks and the visiting Philadelphia Phillies. The Diamondbacks bounced back from loss to the Phillies on Thursday with a walk-off homer last night off the bat of rookie Adrian Del Castillo. It marked another big win for a D-backs team that has been scorching hot since returning from the All-Star break. Arizona has gone 15-5 since the break, whereas the Phillies have been on the opposite end of the spectrum. Before entering their series with the D-backs, the Phillies had lost 6 of their last 7 series with a 6-12 record. Philadelphia has played better of late, winning 2 of their 3 games against the Dodgers in their last series, while their offense has shown some signs of life.
Tonight’s game offers a compelling starting pitching matchup between right-handers Aaron Nola and Zac Gallen. Although each of these pitchers has been reliable throughout their careers, I don’t think they leave the game completely unscathed. Nola owns a respectable 3.54 ERA across 23 starts this season, but he’s had issues with keeping the ball in the park at times. Nola surrendered 32 homers last season and has given up at least 1 homerun in 6 of his last 7 outings. Gallen on the other hand is pitching to a 3.75 ERA and 4.09 xERA with a 43.3% hard-hit rate ranking in the 13th percentile. Gallen performed well to start the season, but his numbers have slipped over the past month. Over his last 7 starts Gallen owns a 5.35 ERA, compared to a 2.83 ERA across his first 12 outings. Both of these lineups are extremely dangerous, with the Phillies averaging 4.9 runs per game to the D-backs 5.16 runs per game. I expect runs in this game and would back the over at its current number.
