Kyle Lupas
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Saturday presents another loaded, 15-game slate with plenty of betting opportunities across Major League Baseball. The day begins in New York at 1:05 pm ET when the Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays, and winds down in Seattle with the Mariners taking on the Philadelphia Phillies at T-Mobile Park, with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 pm ET.
Saturday’s mega parlay features a favorite on the runline, a road underdog to win outright, and a home favorite on the moneyline . Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the reasoning behind each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article.
With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +745 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Twins -1.5 (+112)
Giants ML (+116)
Mariners ML (-118)
MLB Parlay Odds: +745
Minnesota Twins -1.5 over Chicago White Sox (+112)
The AL Central is often lost in the discussion when it comes to World Series hopefuls and teams in contention to make a playoff run, but this year has been much different. The 5 teams making up the division have team payrolls that all fall in the bottom half of the league, but the Twins, Royals, and Guardians are all ranked in the top 12 according to the MLB’s latest Power Rankings. All 3 of these teams are at least 12 games over .500 and would all make the playoffs if the season ended today. The team in last place however, has been a topic of discussion for all the wrong reasons. That team would be the Chicago White Sox, whose 18-game losing streak is 5 games short of tying the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies for the longest losing streak in MLB history.
On the season, the Twins are 10-1 against the White Sox, and it’s hard to believe this trend won’t continue for the remainder of the year. Bailey Ober will take the mound for the Twins tonight with a 3.76 ERA and 3.43 xERA across 20 starts. Ober ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in whiff rate, chase rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, with 7 consecutive quality outings dating back to June 16. Garrett Crochet of the White Sox owns numbers that compete with Ober, posting a 3.23 ERA and 2.47 xERA across 22 starts, with metrics that jump off the page, but he has not gone more than 4.0 innings in each of his last 4 starts. While this should be a low-scoring game in the early goings, the White Sox have not proven to be a threat whatsoever offensively. Chicago ranks dead last in runs scored this season, and over the course of their 18-game losing skid, they have averaged just 2.17 runs per game. Over that same timeframe, the Twins have averaged 4.3 runs per game. It’s impossible to trust the White Sox to put up enough runs to win, so as long as Minnesota can hit their average, they should have a strong chance of covering the run line.
San Francisco Giants ML over Cincinnati Reds (+116)
The San Francisco Giants enter game 2 of their 3-game set with the Cincinnati Reds with some major momentum on their side. The Giants are 6-1 over their last 7 games and have their entire bullpen available tonight after a masterful no-hitter last night from left-hander Blake Snell. Snell shutdown the Reds’ lineup last night while recording 11 strikeouts to just 3 walks. The Giants will roll out another lefty tonight when 22-year-old Kyle Harrison gets the nod. Harrison’s underlying metrics aren’t pleasing to the eye, owing a 4.67 xERA to a 3.69 ERA, while falling below league average in nearly every category, from his 9.9% barrel rate to his 44.3% hard-hit rate, but he has gotten the jump done of late. Harrison has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in any of his 18 starts, and owns a 2.36 ERA over his last 7 outings. It’s worth noting that the Reds rank 25th in wRC+ against left-handers this season, which could help Harrison out in this start.
The Reds undoubtedly have the starting pitching advantage however, as Hunter Greene takes the mound for his 22nd start of the season. Greene owns a 2.97 ERA while ranking in the 96th percentile in both fastball velocity and xBA. Greene was virtually unhittable in the month of July, posting a 0.33 ERA across 4 starts, allowing just 1 earned run over 27.0 innings. Despite that, the Reds went 2-2 in those starts and their bullpen posted a 4.05 xFIP in July. In comparison, the Giants pen posted a 3.55 xFIP in July and have the 4th-best bullpen ERA on the year. This game could come down to the bullpen, and the Giants have a significant advantage in that department. If the Reds continue to struggle against left-handed pitching, Harrison could turn the ball over to San Frans’ pen in a tight game. The Giants are worth the play in this spot, even with Greene on the hill for Cincy.
Seattle Mariners ML over Philadelphia Phillies (-118)
The Philadelphia Phillies are still the number 1 team in baseball according to MLB’s latest Power Rankings, but it comes after a disastrous month of July. Since July 12 the Phillies are 4-12 and have lost each of their last 5 series. Another loss today would make it 6 straight series losses for the Phillies, with the Braves quickly making their way into the rearview mirror — just 5 games back in the NL East. A month ago today, Atlanta was 9 games back and the Mets were 14 games out. The Mets have sliced the deficit in half and are now just 7 games back in the division. Much of the same could be said for the Mariners, who have lost 4 of their last 5 series and are 6-10 since July 12, including 6 losses to the 36-50 Angels. Seattle is now tied with Houston for first place in the AL West.
While each of these teams have not played great in July, nothing is going right in Philadelphia. Their bullpen posted a 6.17 ERA in the month while their rotation posted a 4.64 ERA. Their backup catcher, Garrett Stubbs has made 3 relief appearances since July 14, which is never a great sign for any ballclub. Tonight, Philadelphia is opting for a bullpen game with Orion Kerkering serving as the opener and Kolby Allard taking the duties of bulk reliever. Kerkering has pitched extremely well for the Phillies this season, but Allard has not impressed thus far, especially when the bullpen has been the Phillies’ weakness of late. Allard owns a 5.60 ERA this season across 72.1 innings in the minors and surrendered 3 earned runs over 4.0 innings in his Phillies’ debut on July 28. Meanwhile, the Mariners have Bryce Miller on the hill for his 22nd start of the season, posting a 3.46 ERA on the year and a 1.80 ERA over his last 4 starts. This is not a great spot to back the Phillies and I think it could be another long night with a struggling bullpen. I’ll back Seattle to close out our parlay.
