Caleb Wilfinger
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With a full slate of Major League Baseball taking place on Saturday, there’s plenty of value to be found across the board. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +684 payout at DraftKings Sportsbook. We’ve hit MLB parlays at +529, +722 and +652 this week — can we make it 4 parlay wins in 6 days?
Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Saturday.
Padres -1.5 (+115)
Mariners vs Astros Under 7.5 (-110)
Cubs vs Yankees Under 8 (-110)
MLB parlay odds: +684
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San Diego Padres -1.5 (+115) over New York Mets
To start off this mega parlay, I’m going with the Padres on the run line. You’d be forgiven if you’ve missed the Blake Snell renaissance this season. After a slow start to his 2023 campaign, the lefty has now rattled off 8 consecutive terrific starts, surrendering just 4 runs over his last 47 innings pitched. The southpaw has also struck out 73 batters over his last 8 outings, including 4 starts where he recorded at least 10 punch-outs.
He should see more success against a struggling Mets lineup that is either average or below-average in most major statistical categories, including OBP and OPS. On the other side, David Peterson holds a 6.61 ERA and has poor advanced metrics across the board, so I’m expecting a convincing win from San Diego.
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Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Under 7.5 (-115)
For the second leg of this parlay, I’m backing the under in this AL West clash between the Mariners and Astros. Seattle has underachieved this season, but it has certainly not been because of its pitching. The Mariners’ pitching staff has carried the load in 2023 and Bryan Woo is no exception to that rule. Don’t let his 4.08 ERA blind you, the Seattle right-hander is pitching at a high level in 2023 as he sits in the top 10 percentile of all starters in strikeout rate, xBA and xwOBA. Furthermore, Woo’s xERA of 2.72 shows that he’s been extremely unlucky to this point and is due for positive regression.
The hosts are going with Framber Valdez, who has been equally effective throughout the campaign, as the righty boasts an ERA of 2.49 and has great career numbers against the top of this Mariners lineup. Seattle’s bats have been quiet all season (24th in OBP and SLG), but Houston hasn’t exactly been much better (18th in OBP, 14th in SLG). I feel confident taking the under in what should be a low-scoring affair on Saturday.
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Under 8 (-110)
To close out our mega parlay, I’m going with the under in this matchup between the Cubs and Yankees. Taking an under at Yankee Stadium is a little terrifying, but this Yankee offense has consistently struggled without Aaron Judge’s presence in the lineup. Chicago starter Drew Smyly is excellent at limiting hard contact, as his average exit velocity and hard hit percentage are within the top 18 percentile of all starters. Considering that the everyday player on the Yankees with the best numbers against Smyly is Josh Donaldson, I’m bullish on his chances to have a solid outing. And on the other side, I expect Gerrit Cole to continue his strong season for the hosts against a Cubs lineup that is 21st in SLG and 17th in OPS. I’ll take a stab on the under at this number.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
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