Kyle Lupas
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We have all 30 teams in action to kick off the weekend, beginning in Boston for game 1 of a double-header between the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, and finishing off in Arizona with a game between the Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves. For today’s mega parlay, we’re going with an underdog, an alternative run line, and a favorite on the run line.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Saturday.
Tigers ML (+140)
Nationals -1.5 (+182)
Marlins -1.5 (-105)
Parlay odds: +1221
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Detroit Tigers ML (+140) over Chicago White Sox
The Detroit Tigers may have lost 3-0 last night to the Chicago White Sox, but they’ll have right-hander Michael Lorenzen on the mound this afternoon, just 1 week after he carried a no-hitter into the 6th inning against this same White Sox lineup. Detroit went on to win that game 7-3 and Lorenzen picked up his 4th quality start in 5 attempts in the month of May. Lorenzen might not have the greatest underlying metrics, but he’s had better command and the results speak for themselves. The Tigers have won the last 3 games he’s pitched in and he’s already proven he can shut down the White Sox lineup.
Dylan Cease takes the ball for Chicago and he hasn’t lived up to the preseason Cy Young hype that surrounded him. Through 12 starts, Cease owns a 4.88 ERA and 1.40 WHIP to go along with a 49.2% hard-hit rate. His last outing came against the Tigers and he only lasted 4.0 innings after giving up 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 4 walks. Given the head-to-head track record, I prefer Lorenzen and the Tigers to come out on top. In addition to the starting pitching matchup, the White Sox bullpen owns a 4.98 ERA and 4.74 FIP. That bullpen surrendered 5 runs when Lorenzen and the Tigers won that 7-3 game last week.
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+182) over Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies are favored in this game but I’m going with an alternative line and playing the Nats -1.5. The Phillies have been extremely streaky this season and they’ve now lost 5 consecutive games. Last night’s 8-7 loss was not nearly as close as the score suggested as the Phillies quickly found themselves down 6-0 after 2 innings. A 4-for-5 night from Nick Castellanos nearly brought them back, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the early hole they put themselves in. The biggest reason for this drought is the lack of production from their star players. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber have struggled all season long, and over this 5-game losing streak Turner, Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper are a combined 8-for-68.
Left-hander Matt Strahm takes the ball for Philly and makes his first start since May 23. Strahm began the season in the rotation but has since moved back to the bullpen, which seems to suit him much better. In 11.2 innings out of the pen, Strahm is pitching to a 1.54 ERA, as compared to a 3.90 ERA across 27.2 innings as a starter. It’s also not a great matchup for Strahm considering the Nationals are hitting .295 off left-handed pitching. The Phillies are hitting just .239 off lefties and they’ll see one this afternoon with MacKenzie Gore on the hill. Gore comes off a fantastic start, in which he allowed 1 earned run across 7.0 innings to the Royals. His 29.8% strikeout rate ranks in the 85th percentile and he could find success against a Phillies’ lineup that’s pressing.
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Miami Marlins -1.5 (-105) over Oakland Athletics
The final leg of this parlay is simply a fade against the worst team in baseball. The Oakland Athletics surprised the baseball world after taking 2 out of 3 games from the Atlanta Braves, but normalcy has been restored and the A’s have dropped their last 2 games. At 12-47, the A’s are well on pace for the worst record in MLB history and 38 of those losses have been by 2 runs or more. The Marlins are winners of 5 of their last 7 games and have a promising lineup, including Luis Arraez, who leads the MLB with a .374 batting average. It goes beyond Arraez, as the Marlins are hitting .279 over the last 15 days and should have a good day at the plate today.
The A’s turn to 24-year-old Luis Medina, who’s pitching to a 6.83 ERA in 27.2 innings. Medina has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his starts and the A’s have a -24-run differential in the games he’s appeared in. His .550 xSLG is among one of the worst in baseball and his 6.15 xERA doesn’t suggest much positive regression. Meanwhile, the Marlins counter with Eury Pérez, who was called up from Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos on May 12 and has not looked back. Pérez is the youngest pitcher to debut with the Marlins and he owns a 2.84 ERA through his first 4 outings, including a 5.0-inning shutout against the Angels in his last start. He should have a much easier assignment today and I’m expecting big things from the rookie.
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