Kevin Davies
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It’s a fantastic Saturday slate with plenty of exciting matchups across the country. There’s no better way to celebrate the start of the weekend than with a parlay, so I’ve crafted an 11/1 parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dive into it!
Orioles -1.5 (+114)
Tigers ML (+114)
Royals ML (+180)
Parlay odds: +1182
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+114) over Philadelphia Phillies
One of my favorite pitchers to fade in all of baseball is Taijuan Walker. The Philly starter is the blemish on the incredible starting pitching staff that has been made up of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez. In 8 starts, Walker owns a 5.40 ERA and 5.76 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of baseball in most pitching categories. Some of the categories he struggles in include ranking in the 5th percentile in xERA, 14th percentile in xBA, 4th percentile in whiff rate, and 1st percentile in barrel rate. The veteran has a great sweeper, but the rest of his arsenal is extremely hittable. Baltimore should be able to score in bunches against Walker while Grayson Rodriguez limits the Philadelphia offense.
Detroit Tigers ML (+114) over Houston Astros
At age 41, Justin Verlander has still been a serviceable ace for the Astros. He owns a 3.95 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate in 10 starts this season. But lately, Verlander has had a tough time putting hitters away. Verlander has allowed 10 runs, 14 hits, and 3 home runs in his last 10 innings against the Cardinals and Angels. He will be opposed by Jack Flaherty, who has been fantastic for the Tigers during his 1-year contract. Flaherty’s last start in the rotation was skipped because he left his previous start with lower back pain, a problem that has been going on since his days on the Cardinals. But Flaherty was given a shot for the pain and he says he’s all set for today’s start, so I’m willing to take plus odds with the better pitcher in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals ML (+180) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Seth Lugo was one of the many offseason acquisitions that the Royals made in an effort to fast track the rebuild, and he’s exceeded all expectations. Lugo was brought in to be the 3rd or 4th starter behind Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Michael Wacha, but he’s blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the league. In 14 starts, he has a 2.74 ERA with a 20.4% strikeout rate, but most importantly, just a 38.6% hard hit rate. Lugo excels when he gets soft contact which is critical when facing a team like the Dodgers. With Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman as the first 3 hitters in the lineup, Lugo will have to be careful with them and possibly work around them. At nearly 2/1 odds, I’ll back the Royals with Lugo on the hill.
