Kyle Lupas
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Saturday offers plenty of excitement throughout the day as all 30 teams are in action. We start the day in the Bronx and close things out in Los Angeles with the Angels. With no shortage of games to choose from, I’ve narrowed down the slate and picked my 3 favorite bets for a massive +1121 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a closer look at this parlay and be sure to read the entire article for my reasoning and analysis for each individual leg.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game.
Cubs ML (+138)
Royals ML (+188)
Brewers -1.5 (-128)
Parlay Odds +1121
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Chicago Cubs ML over Atlanta Braves (+138)
The Atlanta Braves snapped the Chicago Cubs 3-game win streak yesterday afternoon after posting an 8-0 win and a 7-run fourth inning. Max Fried made his first start since May 5, but you could hardly notice the layoff with how effective he was. Fried was limited to 72 pitches and was still able to make it through 6.0 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts. Bryce Elder will take the ball for Atlanta today, but it’s a significant drop-off from Fried and his 1.69 ERA. Elder has helped Atlanta stay afloat with a few key injuries to their rotation, but he’s experienced some recent regression in July. Through 5 starts in July, Elder owns a 5.96 ERA and only strikes out 17.8% of the batters he faces. The Cubs may have been shutout yesterday, but they also just plated 41 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Reds.
Right-hander Javier Assad toes the rubber for the Cubs, and he’s been a solid piece to their success. Assad has only started 1 other game this season, but he’s made 19 appearances for 50.0 innings with a 3.24 ERA. Most impressive of all, Assad has only surrendered 1 earned run across his last 23.1 innings for a 0.39 ERA. Assad hasn’t thrown more than 70 pitches in any of his appearances, but if he can provide a solid 4.0 innings, I like the Cubs chances to even the series.
Check out our expert’s MLB best bet for today
Kansas City Royals ML over Philadelphia Phillies (+188)
The Kansas City Royals may only have 36 wins on the year, but they’ve now won 7 consecutive games with their win over the Phillies yesterday, with a +21-run differential. So, what’s changed for the Royals since July 28? Well, their starting pitching owns a 2.59 ERA over the last 7 games, and they’ve managed to score more runs than every team other than the Braves and Cubs. Bobby Witt Jr. is playing like a man on fire and is 17 for his last 32 at-bats with 4 home runs, 15 RBI’s, and 4 stolen bases. Witt Jr. has a slash line of .303/.346/.525 against left-handed pitching and should have a favorable matchup against Phillies’ starter, Cristopher Sanchez.
Sanchez has actually pitched extremely well for the Phillies this season and owns a 2.66 ERA across 9 starts. However, the Phillies have been unable to provide much run support and are 3-6 in his starts as a result. Alec Marsh takes the ball for Kansas City and owns a 6.75 ERA in 6 appearances and a total of 24.0 innings. It’s a limited workload to judge Marsh off of, but he threw 1.0 scoreless inning in relief a few nights ago and racked up 11 strikeouts against the Rays on July 15. The Phillies have won 3 of their last 5 games, but they’ve left countless runners on base and Trea Turner is hitting .100 since July 24. I’m willing to back the hot team in the Royals to pull out another win.
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Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 over Pittsburgh Pirates (-128)
The Milwaukee Brewers have started to slide and are losers in 6 of their last 8 games. Tonight however, is a great opportunity to right the ship with their ace Corbin Burnes on the hill. Burnes has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB throughout his 6-year career with the Brewers, and he’s having another solid season. After a rough month of June, Burnes rolled through July with a 1.85 ERA, and recorded a quality outing in all 7 of his starts. I’m expecting Burnes to come out and have another great start like he did against Pittsburgh on July 1 where he gave up just 1 hit over 7.0 innings.
Former Philadelphia Phillie Bailey Falter will make his Pirates’ debut tonight and his first Major League Start since May 15. Falter began his season with the Phillies, but was assigned to the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs after posting a 5.13 ERA through 40.1 innings. Falter’s pitched well for the Iron Pigs over the last month and posted a 1.96 ERA across 5 starts in July. However, today well be his first time throwing in 8 days and his underlying metrics are a huge concern. Falter’s xBA, strikeout rate, xSLG, and whiff rate are all in the bottom 11% of baseball, and I don’t foresee him outpitching Burnes. I’m backing the Brewers to cover the run line.
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