Kevin Davies
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Welcome to the weekend in Major League Baseball! There is a huge slate of games today with action beginning in Detroit between the White Sox and Tigers. Make sure to tune in during the afternoon section since there are plenty of exciting games, too, like the Diamondbacks and Phillies and Orioles and Astros before the day concludes with the Angels and Dodgers in SoCal.
I have made a 3-team parlay that pays out at more than 11/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get into it!
Guardians -1.5 (+146)
Braves ML (+116)
Nationals -1.5 (+128)
Parlay odds: +1111
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+146) over Toronto Blue Jays
This series began with a blowout win for the Guardians. Cleveland rolled out Carlos Carrasco and managed to prevail 7-1 while only recording 5 hits in the entire game. For tonight, the Guardians have the pitching advantage. Cleveland is starting Ben Lively while the Blue Jays are countering with Jose Berrios, and that immediately makes me lean toward the home team. Lively has been a fantastic pickup for the Guardians since he owns a 3.02 ERA and 3.61 xERA while limiting hitters to a .237 xBA in 11 starts. He won’t blow a high-velocity fastball by you or get plenty of chases, but he does make good pitches on the corner and get plenty of weak contact. As for Berrios, he’s allowed 9 runs, 19 hits and 4 home runs in 17.2 innings this month. In fact, his last start was against the Guardians in Toronto and he was shelled for 4 runs, 8 hits and 1 homer in 6.0 innings. Look for Cleveland to snag back-to-back big wins.
Atlanta Braves ML (+116) over New York Yankees
Chris Sale won the southpaw showdown in New York last night as Carlos Rodon crumbled against a tough Braves lineup. I’m going back to the well with the Braves and backing them to win as underdogs in game two of the series because they have more advantages than you might think. Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Yankees tonight, and the right-hander has been an important piece of the rotation in 2024. However, there’s one important thing you should know about Stroman: he has drastic home and away splits. In 8 starts on the road, Stroman is 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA and has limited hitters to a .226 batting average. But at home he is 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA and is allowing an OPS near .800. Plus, the core of Atlanta’s lineup has had plenty of success against Stroman in their careers. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic and Marcell Ozuna are a combined 17-for-46 (.370) against Stroman. Let’s back the Braves at plus odds tonight.
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+128) over Colorado Rockies
One of the best pitching matchups of the day is happening in…Colorado?!?! Yep, that’s right, the most hitter friendly park in the league…. It also might not look like a stellar pitching matchup, but just wait for it. Mitchell Parker has been fantastic in his rookie season for the Nats, as he owns a 3.06 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP in 12 starts. The big lefty has above-average control and gets plenty of weak contact with his curveball and splitter. In June he boasts a 2.31 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP in 4 starts against the Guardians, Braves Tigers and Marlins. In those 4 outings Parker has limited hitters to a .191 batting average and a 34% hard-hit rate. The rookie will face a Colorado lineup that ranks 22nd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and has just a 6-14 record against southpaw starters in 2024. Parker will be countered by Cal Quantrill, who has revived his career in Colorado. The right-hander has a 3.43 ERA through 15 starts, but he has allowed a .278 batting average in 4 starts in June. I’m expecting the Nats to win this game by several runs — but not in a classic Coors Field slugfest.
