We’ve made it to the weekend in Major League Baseball! Today’s huge 18-game slate features several enticing matchups including the Red Sox and Yankees in the Bronx, the Mariners and Astros in Houston and the Marlins and Dodgers in L.A. Here is my 3-team MLB mega parlay at nearly 11/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Royals/Cubs alternate total under 8.5 (+146)
Brewers ML (+118)
Reds ML (+122)
Parlay odds: +1091
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Kansas City Royals vs Chicago Cubs alternate total under 8.5 (+146)
Brady Singer has been a completely different pitcher since the All-Star break. I’m not sure what he did during his time off, but it has completely changed the course of his season. In the first half of the year, Singer went 5-8 with a 5.80 ERA and allowed hitters to have a .290 batting average, a .291 xBA and a 52% hard-hit rate. That’s terrible for a guy who is supposed to be an ace. However, Singer is 3-0 with a 2.85 ERA and has held hitters to a .179 batting average, .203 xBA and 42% hard-hit rate in the second half of the season. To me, that makes his 4.91 season ERA irrelevant. That’s not who Singer is now, and oddsmakers still might be hesitant to give Singer the respect he deserves, but they should soon enough.
In my opinion, Justin Steele is one of the best pitchers in the National League. Today’s start will be his 23rd of the season, and he has posted a 2.79 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 126 innings. The southpaw gets the benefit of starting on his home mound and will be facing a Royals team that has been better since the break, but still isn’t the biggest threat. The Royals have also been below average against lefties since they own an 81 wRC+ against southpaw pitching in the second half of the season. Between two rising stars, I’m anticipating a very low-scoring game.
Milwaukee Brewers ML (+118) over Texas Rangers
Normally I would be backing my favorite dependable Dane Dunning, but not today. The reason is simple — Freddy Peralta. The right-hander has been on an absolute tear in the second half of the season as he’s allowed no more than 1 run in 4 of his 6 starts. He’s thrown 3 shutouts during those starts and racked up 13 strikeouts twice. In summary, Peralta has been on another level. And now that Milwaukee has Brandon Woodruff back, the Brewers are in a great position to hold their NL Central lead through August and September. But back to Peralta and he has limited hitters to a .175 batting average with a .175 xBA and a 36% strikeout rate since the All-Star break. I’m riding the hot hand.
Dane Dunning is truly a mystery. The right-hander has bounced between the bullpen and starting rotation this season but earned an official spot in the rotation when Jacob deGrom got injured. Since then, Dunning has been fantastic. However, his advanced metrics don’t back up his success. The right-hander comes in this start with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 127.2 innings but has a 4.35 xERA and a 3.93 FIP. That means he’s been getting very lucky and is bound to experience negative regression in the future. I don’t think the Brewers are going to pound Dunning but rather give Peralta just enough run support for the win.
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Cincinnati Reds ML (+122) over Toronto Blue Jays
Cincinnati’s #1 priority at the trade deadline was to acquire another starting pitcher to help take the brunt of the load off Andrew Abbott’s shoulders. Well, the deadline has come and gone, and the Reds did not add to their rotation. However, they got lucky since Brandon Williamson has stepped up in a major way recently. Williamson struggled in the first half of the season with a 5.21 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 starts. As a 25-year-old kid in his rookie season, it wasn’t too surprising. However, the lefty appears to have left his nerves at the All-Star break because he has looked like a veteran in the last few weeks. The southpaw has posted a 3-0 record with a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 6 starts in the second half of the season. During those outings, Williamson has limited hitters to a .200 batting average with a 43% strikeout rate.
Things are going from bad to worse in Toronto. Bo Bichette is still out with a knee injury, Kevin Gausman has been getting knocked around and now Chris Bassitt is going through a slump. The right-hander has surrendered 18 hits, 9 runs and 3 home runs in his last 19 innings. The long ball has started to become an issue, and his walk rate is becoming a concern because he’s allowed 11 free passes in his last 4 outings. Bassitt will take on a Reds team that started the second half of the season in a very slow fashion, but Cincinnati has picked it up recently with a .735 OPS in August before Friday night’s game. At plus-odds, it’s hard to dislike the Reds with Williamson on the mound.
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