We start the weekend with a massive slate of MLB games, and there’s no better way to celebrate than with a mega parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds. For this parlay, I’ve combined an alternate total pick with a run-line pick and an underdog money-line pick.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Saturday.
Twins-Guardians alternate under 6.5 (+180)
Braves -1.5 (-114)
Red Sox ML (+122)
Parlay odds: +1066
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Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians under 6.5 (+180)
Very few players have been as incredible as Sonny Gray this season. After 6 starts, Gray has a 0.77 ERA which is the lowest ERA of any starting pitcher in the game. Gray hasn’t just been getting lucky either, since he has allowed 4 or fewer hits in 4 of his 6 starts. Compared to last season, he is getting more balls put in play to be on the ground while also striking out hitters nearly 30% of the time. Because of Gray’s dominance, the average score of the game when he starts has been very low. The under has won in 4 of his 6 starts, with the average score being 6.5 runs, and looking at his counterpart, I think we could see a similar score.
The rookie Logan Allen will make his 3rd career start on Saturday evening. The lefty has a 2.46 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in just 11 innings, and more impressively, he has a 35.6% strikeout rate. Although his fastball isn’t the best, he has an above-average sweeper that has been his go-to pitch when up in the count. Allen will take on a Twins offense that has struggled against left-handers this year. After the first month of the season, Minnesota ranks 30th in batting average and 29th in on-base percentage against southpaws. Between a pair of excellent starting pitchers and two weak offenses, I’m going with an alternate under to maximize the value.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-114) over Baltimore Orioles
We thought Spencer Strider was good last season, but that might have just been a tease for this year. The flamethrower had a 38.3% strikeout rate last season which seemed near impossible to top, but Strider isn’t an ordinary pitcher. He’s increased his punch-out rate to 41%, which is a higher strikeout per 9 innings ratio than Shohei Ohtani or Jacob deGrom. Besides being absolutely incredible on the mound, he’s also led the Braves to 6 straight wins. Atlanta is 6-0 with Strider starting this season, along with an average winning margin of 4.5 runs, so usually when they win, it’s by a big margin.
The Braves lineup led the league in hard-hit rate going into Friday night, and that should scare Kyle Bradish. The right-hander has a 51% hard-hit rate which ranks in the 7th percentile among starters. Bradish’s arsenal does not set him up for success against Atlanta since he relies on his fastball to a fault. The 26-year-old has thrown his four-seamer about 40% of the time, and so far this year, opponents have a .385 batting average with a .382 xBA against that pitch. And unfortunately for Bradish, the Braves lineup has some of the best fastball hitters in the game. Ronald Acuna Jr, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies all have Run Values well above zero against fastballs this season. With Strider on the bump and the Braves lineup facing Bradish, I’m backing the home team by the run line.
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Boston Red Sox ML (+122) over Philadelphia Phillies
I’ve been doubting the Sox for quite some time, but it might finally be time to admit they aren’t that bad. I thought they might come back to earth against Zack Wheeler on Friday night, but they knocked the Phillies ace around for 4 runs and 7 hits in 5.1 innings. Between Masataka Yoshida’s 15-game hitting streak, Jarren Duran’s rise to success and Rafael Devers recording over 30 RBIs after just a month, the Red Sox have put together a solid offense. Boston extended their winning streak to 7 games with last night’s underdog victory, and that has been a common theme for them as they’ve won 5 of those 7 games as the underdog. And yet again, the Red Sox are listed at plus-odds on the money line for Saturday’s game, so it’s time I finally take a shot on them.
The red-hot Red Sox take on Bailey Falter, a lefty who doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses. Through 32.1 innings, the southpaw has allowed 36 hits, 19 runs and 6 home runs, as he’s also had trouble limiting extra-base hits — especially homers. But the biggest blemish on his season has been 5 losses in 6 starts. He has the tough task of facing a Sox lineup that ranks 1st in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS in the last 14 days, so it’s about time I put some respect into Boston and take their money line at plus-odds.
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