Kevin Davies
Show Bio
It’s a huge day on the diamond. The slate begins in the afternoon in the Bronx and continues throughout the day with exciting matchups like the Astros-Orioles, Diamondbacks-Red Sox, and Phillies-Royals before the day ends with the Rays and Dodgers in Los Angeles. I’m going for back-to-back mega parlay wins after I cashed this +1086 parlay yesterday!
Brewers -1.5 (+126)
Giants/Mariners alternate under 5.5 (+154)
Diamondbacks ML (+102)
Parlay odds: +1059
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+126) over Oakland Athletics
Milwaukee opened the series with a statement win. The Brewers were facing JP Sears, who had been on a roll in the last month or two, and they shelled him and the rest of the A’s bullpen for a total of 14 hits and 11 runs. Even without Christian Yelich, the Brew Crew has been one of the most reliable offenses all year. As for tonight, it’s an interesting pitching matchup between Colin Rea and Joe Boyle. Rea has developed into one of the best pitchers in the staff since he had a fabulous July and has been even better since the break. He’s 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 5 starts in the second half of the season which is impressive, but he’s been even better than his numbers indicate. Rea has thrown 3 shutouts since the break and had one blowup outing against the Dodgers when he allowed 7 runs and 10 hits. That was just the second time in his last 9 starts that he’s allowed more than 2 earned runs in an outing. The A’s are countering Rea with Boyle, a young prospect that really struggles with control. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Boyle has surrendered 6 walks in 2 starts. Expect another big win from the visitors.
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners Under 5.5 (+154)
The first month of the season was Blake Snell’s Spring Training. He struggled with control and didn’t look like the Cy Young winner we saw last season since he posted a 9.51 ERA after his first 6 starts. However, it didn’t take long for Snell to find his groove. Snell had a 0.75 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP in 4 starts in July and has a 1.27 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP in 4 starts this month. August has been highlighted by a no-hitter against the Reds when Snell struck out 11 hitters during his historic bid. So since July 1, Snell has held hitters to a .117 batting average, a .154 xBA, a 37% strikeout rate, and just a 22% hard-hit rate. It’s hard to get better than that. His counterpart is George Kirby, who has had an uncharacteristically bad month. With that said, he has the advantage by starting on his home mound tonight. Kirby owns a 2.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 outings in Seattle this season and will be looking to bounce back after a string of poor starts. This game might see only a run or two, so take the alternate under to maximize the value.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+102) over Boston Red Sox
I truly couldn’t believe the Diamondbacks were underdogs last night. Arizona won by 10 runs and racked up 16 hits against a horrendous Red Sox pitching staff. And to my surprise, there is a plus sign next to Arizona’s money line odds again tonight. Zac Gallen is the probable pitcher for the Snakes tonight, and oddsmakers don’t have a ton of confidence in him after his poor month of August. Gallen got hit hard by the Rays and Guardians this month but also limited a dangerous Phillies lineup to just 1 run in his other outing. I’m expecting Gallen to give up a few runs since he’s in a very hitter-friendly park and isn’t as good on the road, but the difference in this game will be Arizona’s lineup. The Snakes rank 1st in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since August 1. Tonight’s unlucky pitcher will be Kutter Crawford, who has been terrible this month. Crawford has an 8.24 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 4 starts in August. Since the Snakes have the starting pitching, hitting, and bullpen advantage, they’re the clear pick in this game.
