Kyle Lupas
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All 30 teams are on the schedule this Saturday across the MLB, starting off in Toronto at 3:07 PM ET and wrapping up in Los Angeles at 10:10 PM ET with a matchup between the Dodgers and Rockies. For Saturday’s Mega Parlay, I’m siding with a pair of underdogs to win outright along with a favorite to cover the run line.
Below I’ll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick. For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let’s take a look at Saturday’s MLB mega parlay which pays out at +1055 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks ML (+114)
Reds ML (+116)
Phillies -1.5 (+150)
MLB Parlay Odds: +1055
Arizona Diamondbacks ML over New York Mets (+114)
The New York Mets may have taken the first 2 games of their 4-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the month of May has not been too kind to them. The Mets finished May with a 9-19 record, which is only slightly worse than the D-backs month of May at 11-15, but I like this afternoon’s matchup for Arizona. The D-backs have a 114 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season and they’ll be going up against lefty Sean Manaea, who has done a decent job to this point. Across his first 10 starts, Manaea owns a 3.16 ERA, but an xERA of 4.20 with a career-worst walk rate and a ground-ball rate that ranks in the 11th percentile. Another argument against the Mets in this game is their depleted bullpen, which owns a 6.59 ERA over the past 2 weeks and just gave up 4 earned runs last night.
Meanwhile for the D-backs, right-hander Slade Cecconi will take the ball for his first start since he was optioned to Triple-A Reno on May 22. Cecconi started his season with back-to-back quality outings, but he has given up 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Luckily for Cecconi, his 3.43 xERA as compared to his 6.12 ERA would suggest some positive regression in the near future. I view this starting pitching matchup as relatively even, but the D-backs have advantages in both their lineup and bullpen today, and that is enough for me to back them as underdogs. Look for Arizona to bounce back this afternoon.
Cincinnati Reds ML over Chicago Cubs (+116)
The Cincinnati Reds look to stay hot tonight having won 5 of their last 7 games, including a 5-4 win over the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field yesterday. Tonight the Reds turn to their ace Hunter Greene, who has been nothing short of spectacular to begin the season, owning a 3.06 ERA and 1.14 WHIP along with some impressive underlying metrics. Greene has actually underperformed when you consider his xERA is a half run lower at 2.56. Aside from that, Greene ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, fastball velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Greene has given up just 8 earned runs over his last 6 starts, 2 of which came against the Dodgers, and will now face a Chicago lineup that is not at all overpowering.
The Cubs rank in the bottom 10 in BA, SLG, and OPS and have lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Reds also rank in the bottom 10 of the categories mentioned above, but I like their chances against Cubs’ starting pitcher Justin Steele, than I do the Cubs against Greene. Steele enters tonight’s contest off an impressive 7-inning shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers, but he has had just as many decent starts this season as he has had blow up starts. Steele has only made 6 starts thus far, but 3 of those starts resulted in at least 4 earned runs. The underlying metrics suggest positive regression, but the 45.2% hard-hit rate is a concern that I cannot get past. I don’t believe we get much offense in this game, but Steele has been too unpredictable as compared to Greene who has been largely consistent to start the year. I’ll back the Reds to get another win in this spot.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (+150)
Our final game takes us to Citizens Bank Park, where the Philadelphia Phillies will host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies perhaps went through their first hiccup of the season recently, having lost consecutive series to the Rockies and Giants, but they quickly responded with a win over the Cardinals yesterday and still own the best record in baseball. A large part of their success can be credited to left-hander Ranger Suarez, who is 9-1 with a 1.75 ERA through his first 11 starts. Suarez finally showed that he was human after his last start, giving up 4 earned runs across 6.0 innings to the Colorado Rockies. It was the first game the Phillies lost this season in a Suarez start and it was the first time that Suarez surrendered more than 3 earned runs in an outing.
The Cardinals have been extremely weak offensively this season, and they’ve been awfully bad against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th with a 81 wRC+. I don’t envision the Cardinals doing much damage against Suarez, who induces plenty of weak contact and ground-ball outs. St. Louis will counter with 34-year-old Sonny Gray, who owns an impressive 7-2 record with a 2.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a career-best 32.4% strikeout rate. While this should be a great pitching matchup, I don’t have faith in the Cardinals lineup to do enough at the plate. The Phillies rank in the top 10 in nearly every major offensive category and have one of the deeper lineups in baseball. I’ll look for the Phillies to provide enough run support for Suarez and cover the run line.
