Kevin Davies
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We’ve made it to the weekend! There is plenty of sports on today as College Football returns in a big way, but there is also a juicy MLB slate that has plenty of day baseball. I’ve crafted a 3-leg parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds, so let’s check it out!
Phillies -2.5 (+112)
Diamondbacks ML (+134)
Guardians ML (+130)
Parlay odds: +1040
Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 (+112) over Miami Marlins
Last night turned into a slaughter in Miami. The Phillies jumped on Austin Kitchen early and then continued to wreak havoc on the bullpen for all 9 innings. In the end, the Phillies finished with 16 runs and 22 hits. The entire lineup was ripping the cover off the ball, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t do it again tonight against Darren McCaughan. The 28-year-old has made only 6 appearances this season, including 1 start, and he owns a 8.24 ERA paired with a 7.22 xERA. McCaughan had an 8.62 ERA after his first 5 relief appearances and was then promoted to the rotation last weekend, and he was hit for 4 runs, 5 hits, and 1 home run in 4 innings against the Giants. The Phillies are countering him with Aaron Nola, who has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 consecutive starts. This game should be all Philly from the start to finish.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+134) over Houston Astros
Yusei Kikuchi has been phenomenal for the Astros. The lefty was acquired by Houston at the trade deadline, in what many initially believed as a massive overpay by the ‘Stros, and he’s posted a 3-0 record with a 2.57 ERA in 6 starts. Kikuchi has looked like a different pitcher in Houston, but this is going to be his hardest test yet. One of his final starts as a Blue Jay was against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, and the southpaw was shelled for 7 runs, 6 hits, and 3 walks in 4.2 innings. He has terrible numbers against the Snakes and Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Randal Grichuk have especially hit him hard in his career. On the hill for the Diamondbacks is Eduardo Rodriguez, who is still settling into the rotation after missing most of the season with a lat injury. E-Rod has good numbers against the Astros lineup in his career, so the plus odds for the Diamondbacks to win is just a bonus.
Cleveland Guardians ML (+130) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Any time that I see Justin Wrobleski scheduled to start, I immediately look at the opposing teams’ money line. Wrobleski is a 24-year-old southpaw that was rushed through the Minor Leagues so that the Dodgers could fill their injured-riddled rotation. The southpaw was in the Minor Leagues for a little over 2 seasons and made just 5 starts in Triple-A before receiving the promotion to Los Angeles. The speedy trip through the Minors has Wrobleski extremely underprepared for the big leagues as he owns a 6.82 ERA paired with a 6.95 xERA in 6 starts. In his 6 outings, the lefty has allowed a 13.3% barrel rate, .295 xBA, .582 xSLG, and a 44.9% sweet-spot rate. And in just his last outing, the rookie was shelled for 10 runs, 10 hits, and 2 home runs against the Diamondbacks. There’s no reason to do anything but fade Wrobleski until he proves himself.
