It’s finally the weekend and there’s no better way to start it off than with a MLB mega parlay. There will be games on throughout the day and I’ve found three bets that I really like for today’s mega parlay. We already hit a +937 mega parlay this week, so I’m hoping to make it two. Let’s get right into it.
Phillies/Mets alternate total under 5.5 (+140)
Yankees -1.5 (+108)
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+102)
Parlay odds: +910
For this parlay we are going with two favorites on the run line and one alternate total. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets under 5.5 (+140)
It’s an incredibly low total for a baseball game, but listen, it’s Jacob deGrom! He has cemented himself as one of the best pitchers the game has ever seen. His 2 starts this season have been against the Nationals and Braves, and the ace has allowed 3 runs and 4 hits while recording 18 strikeouts in just 10.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .114 with a 50% strikeout rate against DeGrom this season, and it’s been pure dominance from the right-hander. His incredible success has resulted in very low-scoring games throughout his career, as the 2 games he’s started this year have combined for 6 and 7 runs. In 2021, the games DeGrom started in averaged 5.87 runs per game, but that number dropped to 5.40 when he started at Citi Field.
Aaron Nola may not be on the superstar level of DeGrom, but he has been excellent for Philadelphia this season. The right-hander has allowed 2 runs and 11 hits in his last 12 innings and has lowered his ERA to 3.17, but it’s still not done declining. His xERA sits at 2.84, which means positive starts are still to come in the near future for him. Nola has also excelled when he pitches away from Citizens Bank Park, as his ERA drops to 2.24 when he starts on the road. In his 11 starts away from Philadelphia, the games have averaged 5.18 runs, and in his one start at Citi Field this season, the game finished with just 3 runs. This should be a pitchers’ duel throughout the game and a low-scoring contest from the first pitch to the last, so back the under in the alternate total to get the most value.
Check out our full game preview for the Phillies vs Mets
New York Yankees -1.5 over Boston Red Sox (+108)
As far as debuts go for a new team, Frankie Montas’ was terrible. Montas made his first start for the Yankees last week against the Cardinals after being traded at the deadline, but luckily for him it wasn’t in New York, or else he would have been booed. The former Athletics ace allowed 6 runs, 5 hits and 3 walks before Aaron Boone had seen enough and pulled him after only 3 innings of work. Following that start, oddsmakers are low on Montas and for some reason oddly high on the Red Sox.
The good news for Kutter Crawford is that he already pitched well against the Yankees this season, but the bad news is that the Yankees are prepared for him now. He was roughed up by the below-average Royals in his previous outing and that gives me no confidence that he can stop New York’s offense twice. The acquisition of Eric Hosmer might have helped the Boston offense slightly, but they do not deserve to be this price. There’s great value on Montas following his poor outing in St. Louis, so back New York for a big win.
Check out our full game preview for the Yankees vs Red Sox.
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 over Colorado Rockies (+102)
If a pitcher has a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, something is very wrong. That is the case for Jose Urena, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. After starting with the Brewers and allowing 5 runs and 7 hits in 7.2 innings, Urena was unsurprisingly DFAd. And where does the worst pitcher in baseball land? In Colorado, home of the most hitter-friendly park in the country. Urena has been throwing batting practice for the Rockies since he has a 4.63 ERA and a 6.02 xERA through 37 innings. The veteran ranks in the 5th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and more, so in summary he’s been terrible.
The Diamondbacks’ offense just faced Urena in Arizona on Sunday and tagged him for 3 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings. The Arizona offense also hit 2 home runs against Urena which is impressive because not only is Chase Park considered a pitcher-friendly park, but it’s also the hardest park to hit a home run in. It’s important to note that Saturday’s game will take place at Coors Field, which is by far the easiest park to hit a home run in, according to ESPN’s park factors. On top of that, Zac Gallen will start for the Diamondbacks, who has been the ace of the staff this season with a 3.12 ERA through 118.1 innings. The Arizona lineup has a .333 batting average against Urena in 28 plate appearances, and I expect that average to only rise on Saturday. It’s been a bad season for Urena, and it’s may get even worse.
Check out our full game preview for the Diamondbacks vs Rockies.
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