Caleb Wilfinger
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The dog days of the MLB season are in full swing as the playoff races heat up. With that comes another slate of baseball from coast to coast on Saturday. And what better way to celebrate than by going for a big payday? That’s right, we’re back with another mega parlay with a potential payout of over 9/1 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
But before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks for every MLB side and total today. Let’s get into our mega parlay for Saturday.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+145)
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+125)
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-110)
Best parlay odds: +952 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds available at time of publishing.
Let’s break down each of the legs one by one.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+145) over Boston Red Sox
To start off this mega parlay, we’re going with the Rays on the run line. Every team in the AL East has a shot at the postseason, and this series is crucial for both sides. However, despite the Rays owning the season series so far, this is still a rather evenly-priced game. That doesn’t make sense to me considering Tampa Bay’s great run of form. With the Red Sox recently placing starter Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list, Boston appears to be at a disadvantage on the mound.
The Red Sox would much prefer to not have 42 year-old Rich Hill starting, but their rotation has them in a bind. Hill has pitched just 3 times since July 1 and holds a 4.68 ERA this season. Boston has already lost 8 of its 10 meetings with Tampa this season, and one of those was a start by Jeffrey Springs. Springs will make this matchup a battle of left-handed pitchers, and he’s been in good form this month. In fact, Springs has surrendered more than 1 earned run just once in his last 4 starts. Even after making the transition from the bullpen, Springs has been consistent pitching deep into games as well. This only further enhances the Rays edge over the Sox, as they should be able to win this game comfortably.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+125) over Cleveland Guardians
For the second leg of our parlay, we’re going with the Mariners on the run line. Both teams are in the heat of a playoff push and fairly evenly matched overall. However, this game boils down to the pitching matchup, which is where the Mariners decidedly hold the edge. Luis Castillo gets the start at home for Seattle, boasting a 2.93 ERA and xSLG and barrel rate in the top 20% of qualified starters. Castillo has allowed just 15 runs in his last 10 starts, with 4 of those coming in his previous outing in Oakland. It’s exceedingly rare that Castillo has multiple bad starts in a row, so expect him to bounce back.
The same can’t be said for Zach Plesac, whose advanced metrics aren’t pretty. With an xERA of 5.32, and ranking in the bottom 10 percentile for xBA, xSLG and xwOBA, Plesac is clearly struggling on the hill. The Mariners offense should get a boost with the recent return of Julio Rodriguez, and Plesac has allowed 4 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts. Back Seattle to pick up an important win at home by at least 2 runs.
St. Louis Cardinals ML (-110) over Atlanta Braves
To close out this mega parlay, we’re going with the Cardinals on the money line. St. Louis has been on an absolute tear of late, winning 16 of 20 to take a commanding lead in the NL Central. More than that, the pitching of their trade deadline acquisitions has propelled the Cardinals into first place. One new impact starter is Jordan Montgomery, who is pitching at an extremely high level since joining the team. The left-hander has allowed 1 run in 26.0 IP in St. Louis, lowering his season ERA considerably in the process. Even against a tough Braves lineup, it’s hard to look past an in-form Montgomery at home.
The Braves have also been playing extremely well since the all-star break, closing the gap to the Mets with each series. However, Charlie Morton has been wildly inconsistent in 2022, often struggling after a strong start in the previous outing. The way St. Louis has been hitting at home, Morton will need to be at the top of his game. At this price, I’ll side with the home team in this one.
Be sure to check out our best YRFI/NRFI plays for today’s games
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