Mark Lammey
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The Giants and Twins have been rather inconsistent teams this season. San Francisco came into this season after an incredible 2021, but is struggling to hold a .500 record. Minnesota once had the lead in the AL Central, but has let that slip away. Both teams have also had recent injuries affecting their lineups. Brandon Belt for the Giants and Byron Buxton of the Twins are both out. That’s a lot of Bs, but let’s find the A+ plays for this matchup and make it a profitable one. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Twins ML (-142)
Under 8.5 total runs (-170)
Luis Arraez 2+ total bases (-105)
Parlay odds: +454
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Minnesota Twins ML (-142) over San Francisco Giants
The Giants came into this series after getting upset by the Tigers, the 2nd-worst team in the American League. They were handled in that matchup, losing by a final of 6-1. Prior to that was a lost series to the Rockies and back-to-back losses to the Diamondbacks. San Francisco hasn’t won a series since they played the Pirates at home. All of that to say that they provide no confidence that they can win this weekend’s series in Minnesota. That holds even more true after last night’s blowout, and now they’ll be facing Twins ace Sonny Gray.
Although he’s coming off a loss, that was not his fault. He allowed just 2 runs in 6.0 innings, and he’s allowed more than 2 runs just once this month. His other starts were both shutout performances, including a 10-strikeout outing just 2 starts ago. He hasn’t faced the Giants yet this season, but he’s 2-1 against them in his career. The Twins should provide him more run support than his last start against Giants starter Alex Cobb. He’s just 4-6 on the year, and the team has lost 5 of his last 6 starts. His 5.68 career ERA against the Twins also doesn’t bode well for San Francisco. With Minnesota also having the relief pitching advantage, they should be able to help themselves gain ground in the AL Central race.
Under 8.5 total runs (-170)
This game is listed with one of the lowest totals of the day, and for good reason. We’re even going with a slightly alternate total, which has helped us cash same game parlays in the past. Gray should have no problem doing his part against a Giants lineup that cannot stay healthy. He’s allowed more than 2 runs just once over his last 6 starts. That’s the perfect combination against a Giants lineup that was just shutout last night.
They came into this series scoring just 1 run against the Tigers, and defeated them by a score of 3-1 the game prior. They were able to play in Coors Field before that series, but were even shut out leading into that game. All 4 of those games against the Diamondbacks finished with 7 or fewer runs. Similarly, Gray lost his last start as the Twins provided him with just a single run. They went on to score just 6 total runs over 4 games in that series against the Rangers. Thankfully Webb should allow more opportunities to support him, but not enough for a high-scoring game.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
Luis Arraez 2+ total bases (-105)
Although Buxton is out for the Twins, they have a solid lineup full of capable bats. While Carlos Correa would be the next most notable name, we’re going to go with the lefty leadoff man. He got the rare night off last night due to the matchup. Alex Wood, a lefty, was on the mound for the Giants. Now that Cobb, a righty, will be getting the start, Arraez should be well-rested for a stellar night. He’s already had an incredible season, as his 135 hits are the 4th-most in the American League. That’s helped him lead the team with his 181 total bases, including 23 doubles. Hall-of-Famer Ichiro Suzuki said earlier this season that Arraez was his current favorite left-handed hitter. That’s high praise for the 1st baseman, and he should be trusted to have a big night tonight.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+952 odds!)
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