Mark Lammey
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We didn’t have to wait long to get the biggest revenge game in quite some time. After turning down $440 million from the Nationals, Juan Soto was traded to the Padres just 10 days ago. He headed out west alongside 1st baseman Josh Bell and joined up with former-Red Brandon Drury. In combination with Manny Machado and eventually Fernando Tatis Jr, they look to be a team that can make a deep playoff run. Meanwhile, the Nationals have lost 11 of their last 14 games and have the worst record in baseball. Despite heading in opposite directions, we can still make this series opener profitable. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Padres -1.5 (-135)
Over 8.5 total runs (-145)
Juan Soto 2+ total bases (+105)
Parlay odds: +340
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-135) over Washington Nationals
The Padres were already the superior team in this matchup, and the Nationals themselves helped increase the gap between them. When Soto and Bell left the nation’s capital for Southern California, San Diego became the 5th favorite to win the World Series. That’s also in part due to acquiring an incredible closer from the Brewers, Josh Hader. However, their first full series as this new-look team did not go well. They had to take on the league’s best team in the Dodgers. After bouncing back and scoring 20 runs on the Giants over the last 2 games, the Nats, the league’s worst team, don’t look to fare much better.
Starter Mike Clevinger had been on a nice run before meeting up with the Dodgers in that series. Prior to that start, he had allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 straight outings, while pitching at least 6.0 innings each time. That’s quite the opposite experience as Nationals starter Cory Abbott. He just got his first start the same day of the Soto trade, and was smashed for 7 runs in 3.2 innings in his most recent start. The Padres are already superior at the plate and with their starting rotation, and the addition of Hader adds another element. While San Diego enhanced their ability to close out games, the Nats have the league’s 7th-worst bullpen. With the Padres having the advantage in just about every aspect, they should help Soto get his revenge in a dominant fashion.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals
Over 8.5 total runs (-145)
San Diego leaving the west coast to play this series in Washington should help them continue showing off all of their new talent. Nationals Stadium ranks in the top 10 for both extra-base hits and overall runs. Those factors certainly haven’t helped the Nats in terms of their pitching numbers. While their bullpen is the 7th-worst in the league, their overall team ERA is the absolute worst. Abbott has contributed to those poor numbers with his most recent performance. After allowing 7 runs himself, the Nationals ended up losing his start by a score of 13-1. That’s how many runs the Padres scored the last time they saw the field, defeating the Giants 13-7.
The game prior to that finished with 11 runs, as their new lineup has been coming together. Although Soto and Bell will get the majority of the attention given they’re facing their old team, it’s been Drury impressing his new team; he’s already racked up 10 RBI. The only concern behind this play would be the lack of contribution from the Nats. However, they were able to do so in their last home series. That was against the Mets, who have the 2nd-most wins in baseball, and Washington scored 5 runs in each of the last 2 games of the series. One of those was a Jacob deGrom start, so they should at least cross the plate a time or 2 against Clevinger to help this game get over the total.
Juan Soto 2+ total bases (+105)
Given the situation, it’s only fitting to target Soto for this prop. While it’s not overly surprising, it doesn’t mean he isn’t the future face of the league. He’ll obviously be familiar hitting in this ballpark, and will of course want to take it to his former team. While those are more arbitrary factors, he has the talent as well. After he and the rest of the team had a poor series against the Dodgers, Soto was a large part of their bounce-back.
He hit this prop in each of the last 2 games against the Giants, including 6 total bases on Tuesday. Now that he’s taking on the league’s worst pitching staff that he is all too familiar with, he should have no issue getting just 2 tonight. He’s just a double away from having 20 of both doubles and home runs, and is nearing his .999 OPS of last season. Now that pitchers can no longer pitch around him with Manny Machado and company batting behind him, expect Soto to show off on Friday.
Don’t miss our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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