Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 MLB season continues on Sunday, and we have another exciting slate of games to watch. One of the matchups features the New York Mets and San Diego Padres, starting at 7:05 pm ET on ESPN. I just hit a same game parlay yesterday at +412 odds. Let’s make it 2 days in a row!
We have come up with a 3-leg parlay, which would pay out at better than 4/1 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.
Padres ML (+108)
No Runs First Inning (-115)
Pete Alonso to record a hit (-200)
Parlay odds: +483
Padres ML (+108)
To start off this same game parlay, we are going with the Padres on the money line. San Diego was in a bit of slump prior to the All-Star break, but the Padres have looked rock solid in this series. Now, they’ll have the advantage of having Joe Musgrove on the mound tonight. While the right-hander did struggle in his last start against the Rockies, he was brilliant in the 10 previous outings. Over that 10-start span dating back to May 8, Musgrove allowed just 16 runs in just 67.0 innings pitched. Even after allowing 5 runs in his last start, his ERA is still 2.42 and WHIP this season is 0.97. Musgrove isn’t allowing many baserunners, while striking out opposing hitters at an elite level. All of that is a recipe for success on the road.
While the Padres’ lineup has been extremely inconsistent, they should have a few chances to get a couple of hits with RISP off Carlos Carrasco. While the Mets’ starter has been solid at home this season, 4 of his last 7 starts have resulted in at least 4 earned runs given up. That’s not a good sign against a Padres lineup that has been more opportunistic of late. I’ll side with the road team and better starting pitcher in this one.
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No runs 1st inning (-115)
Honing in on correlating results is usually helpful when constructing a same game parlay. In this case, I think a Padres win pairs nicely with another low scoring game. For that to happen, both pitchers need to get off to quick starts, and I think they will do just that. Musgrove will be looking to bounce back after a rare poor outing, while Carrasco has not allowed a first inning run in 4 of his last 6 starts. Most of Carrasco’s advanced metrics are not kind, but he does induce strikeouts, which the top of the Padres order can be susceptible to.
On the other side, the Mets offense has been struggling mightily of late, and Musgrove just a great job of limiting baserunners via walks. New York will likely have to string hits together in order to scratch off a first inning run, and I don’t think that Musgrove will be challenged until the middle innings.
Pete Alonso to record a hit (-200)
As a rule, including legs that may not correlate with each other always increases your odds in a same game parlay. However, I don’t think Pete Alonso having success conflicts with a Padres victory. With hits in 7 of his last 9 games, it’s more than fair to expect Alonso to produce today. The rest of the New York offense has struggled of late, but Alonso is hitting .333 lifetime against Musgrove through two meetings. The Mets best power bat should get at least 4 plate appearances, giving us a good chance of cashing this leg. Even at this price, Alonso still presents value as a nice way to pad out our parlay.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
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