Mark Lammey
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Almost no one anticipated the Padres and Phillies being the NLCS matchup, so it’s only fitting that the series has gotten off to a 1-1 start. The teams now transition to Philly for Games 3 and 4 after a Thursday rest day. Not only is this series evened up, but the regular season series between these teams was also a close one; the Phillies had the slight 4-3 edge. Both teams have proven they can pull off the most surprising wins, so let’s break down how Game 3 should play out. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Phillies ML (-105)
Under 7.5 total runs (-120)
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+145)
Parlay odds: +650
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Philadelphia Phillies ML (-105) over San Diego Padres
There’s no denying these are 2 teams that have been pulling off upsets left and right, so it’s no surprise this game is essentially listed as a pick ‘em. With the Phillies heading back east to the comforts of Citizens Bank Park, we expect them to bounce back from Game 2’s loss and take the series lead once again. That may seem surprising at first glance of the starting pitching matchup, but these MLB playoffs have proven that anything can happen.
Padres starter Joe Musgrove was lights out in his first postseason appearance. However, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his following start against the Dodgers. He was also nothing close to it against the Phillies earlier this season. Philly absolutely lit up Musgrove by the tune of 6 runs off of 7 hits and just 1 strikeout. Better yet, it was Ranger Suarez on the mound opposite him for the Phillies in that game. The lefty will be getting the start for this game, and he allowed just 2 runs in 7.1 innings of work against San Diego in that aforementioned matchup. The Padres are mediocre at best against lefties overall, so the city of Philly looks set to be going crazy once again on Friday night.
Be sure to check out our San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Under 7.5 total runs (-120)
Let’s transition the fact that San Diego doesn’t hit lefties particularly well into our under prediction on the total. Game 2’s final score may cause hesitation with this play, but there were some crazy circumstances in that game. Little league-esque bloop hits and the sun blinding outfielders led to plenty of unnecessary runs. Those types of things shouldn’t be expected, especially with Philly not exactly being in Southern California.
Regardless, the first game of the series was a low-scoring 2-0 Phillies win. Also keep in mind that both teams are coming into this game having had Thursday off, which means well-rested bullpens. Lastly, all 3 games between these teams easily stayed under the total in their series in Philly earlier in the season. Those games finished with final scores of 2-0 and 3-0 twice, so don’t expect too many fireworks in this one.
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+145)
Expecting a low-scoring game may sound contradictory to a hitting prop. However, an extra-base hit doesn’t instantly produce 8 runs. Either way, Harper’s prowess at the plate has been unmatched this postseason, as he’s been proving why he’s the reigning NL MVP. He won’t be winning the award again due to an injury this season, but he’s back in form and then some. His 13 hits are the most in the postseason and his .935 slugging percentage is unmatched.
To say he’s been efficient at the plate would be an understatement. Harper has had an extra-base hit in 7 straight games now and has 4 doubles and 4 homers during the playoffs. Not only has he hit this prop in all 7 games, he’s had at least 3 total bases in 6 of them. It doesn’t seem like there’s any amount of sticky stuff Musgrove could put on his ear in Game 3 to slow down Harper.
Also check out our Padres vs Phillies YRFI/NRFI best bet for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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