Mark Lammey
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The NLCS transitioned to Philadelphia last night after the teams split the first 2 games. The Phillies were able to capitalize on the home field advantage and win yet another low-scoring game. We’ve been correctly predicting sides and totals throughout this series, so it’s time for an SGP to come together. Game 4 will again be in Philly tonight, so let’s break down the matchup. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Manny Machado 2+ total bases (+125)
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+135)
Parlay odds: +400
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Manny Machado 2+ total bases (+125)
After correctly predicting the sides and totals throughout both Championship Series, Game 4 of the NLCS seems like much more of a toss up than any game thus far. The Phillies originally had Noah Syndergaard scheduled to start this game. However, they seem to be leaning into the Padres not hitting lefties particularly well and are now starting 2nd-year pitcher Bailey Falter. As for San Diego, they are starting Mike Clevinger. That’s a massive drop-off from the likes of Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. With it being difficult to trust either starter tonight, we’re going to target some hitting props.
Therefore, we also predict a higher-scoring game, but adding in an alternate total barely improved our odds. Therefore, all we need is just 2 legs to hit, beginning with one of the most consistent hitters in the MLB. Manny Machado often gets overshadowed with the Los Angeles Dodgers out west, but his 307 total bases were the 5th-most in the NL. He’s a perfect balance of power and consistency, as he had 37 doubles, a triple and 32 home runs. That was good for a .531 slugging percentage, which is better than 3 of the 4 total base-leaders ahead of him. Machado also doesn’t fall into the Padres overall category of being mediocre against lefties. He has a slugging percentage just shy of .500 against them, so he should cash this prop early against Falter.
Be sure to check out our San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+135)
This was the leg that burned our SGP last night, but it doesn’t mean it isn’t worth targeting again tonight. It’s not as if Bryce Harper went completely cold, as he still had a hit last night. Unfortunately, it was just a single. However, that was the first game in the last 8 where Harper didn’t hit this prop. He too hasn’t been discussed as much this season due to missing time with an injury.
However, he’s still the reigning NL MVP and was on pace for another career year prior to missing games. Regardless, much of the same logic still applies. The baseball is looking like a beach ball to him through this postseason. He’s still leading all players in the playoffs with 14 hits, 8 of which were either doubles or home runs. His .857 slugging percentage in this postseason is also incredible. Both he and Machado also have the benefit of this game again being in Philly. Citizens Bank Park ranks in the top 10 for both runs and home runs. Coupled with the lack of aces on the mound, expect a bit more action in tonight’s Game 4.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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