Mark Lammey
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The Padres were able to take down the New York Mets in their Wild Card series and now have to meet up with a familiar foe. The Dodgers have been patiently waiting for their opponent, as they earned a 1st-round bye. LA has been the favorites to win the World Series virtually the entire season, so let’s break down how their postseason journey should begin. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
Over 6.5 total runs (-165)
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases (+115)
Parlay odds: +400
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105) over San Diego Padres
The Padres already made it further than last season by simply making the playoffs, and were the underdogs in the Wild Card round against the Mets. However, that’s likely to be as far as they go now that they meet up with the Dodgers. LA has owned the Padres this season, going 14-5 against them in the regular season. San Diego was supposed to be another super team after acquiring Juan Soto and others at the trade deadline, but they have been far from it.
They still needed the last week of the season just to make the playoffs, primarily due to the Dodgers always slowing them down. LA finished the season a full 22 games over the Padres in the NL West and with a 334 run differential. In other words, when the Dodgers win, they win big. Of their 14 wins against San Diego, 13 of them were by multiple runs. That includes final scores of 11-2, 12-1 and 10-2. If that wasn’t bad enough for Padres fans, their team is giving Mike Clevinger the start to open up this series. He’s allowed 14 runs to the Dodgers in 3 starts this season, so expect another convincing win for LA on Tuesday night.
Be sure to check out our San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 predictions
Over 6.5 total runs (-165)
It’s understandable why the total for this game is low, as the Dodgers have been battling with the Houston Astros for the most elite pitching staff in the MLB. However, they also scored the most runs in baseball this season by a landslide. LA finished the regular season with 847 runs, making them 1 of just 2 teams to eclipse 800. Their .775 team OPS was the highest in the league, and infielders Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner were the top 2 players in terms of hits.
Therefore, it’s no surprise this total ticked up a bit after originally being listed at this number. Sharp bettors quickly jumped on the total after the Padres announced it would be Clevinger starting the game. His last 3 starts against the Dodgers have finished with totals of 9, 13 and 11 runs. He’s been the one allowing the majority of those runs, as LA has scored at least 4 runs against him in each of those 3 starts. It’s also worth remembering that the Padres were the only team in the postseason pushed to all 3 games in the Wild Card round. That means they will have a bullpen that is not nearly as rested as they’d prefer, and now has to face a Dodgers lineup that can put up runs in bunches.
Also check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today — we’re on a 9-3 run!
Mookie Betts 2+ total bases (+115)
One guy specifically that should help both the Dodgers cover the run line and the game go over the total is Mookie Betts. There’s not much that hasn’t been said about the former MVP, but it doesn’t mean they don’t still hold true. His 35 home runs were the 5th-most in the NL despite missing 20 games, and his 40 doubles were also the 5th-most.
Those extra-base hits helped him accumulate 305 total bases, which was the 6th-most in the NL. However, his .533 slugging percentage was above guys ahead of him like Austin Riley, who led the entire NL in total bases. This play is also about Betts’ success against Clevinger. He’s hitting .429 against him, including 1 of those 40 doubles. Even if he doesn’t hit this prop in the bottom of the 1st inning, he’s been the best Dodgers hitter against the Padres this season. His .361 average against them is better than even Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner. It’s tough to pinpoint just 1 hitter in a lineup full of all-stars, but bank on Betts in the opener.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for today’s playoff action (+1081 odds!)
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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