Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is back in full swing after the all-star break, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We have a nice small slate on Monday, and one of the best games is this AL East clash between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox. It should be a fun one, broadcasted wide by ESPN.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised showdown than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Toronto Blue Jays -2.5 (+210)
Bo Bichette to hit a home run (+480)
Parlay odds: +1196
We’ve got a simple two-leg parlay here, one which pays out just shy of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Toronto Blue Jays -2.5 (+210)
The Blue Jays, thanks to their lethal offense, are always a team you want to consider on an alt run line. They’ve got the highest OPS in MLB, so they can put up runs in a hurry. Their last four victories, each being by at least five runs, came by a combined score of 35-5. When they win, they tend to win big. With a struggling Nick Pivetta on the mound, the sky is the limit for Toronto’s offense here.
Pivetta has been steadily declining after a hot start, and he’s given up at least four earned runs in three of his past four outings. The Blue Jays have faced Pivetta three times this season, and they’ve hit him hard each time. They’ve racked up 24 hits and 14 earned runs in only 16 and 2/3 innings against him. Sure this will be Thomas Hatch’s first appearance in the big leagues this season, but he had a 2.73 ERA in limited action last year. I think he’ll be just fine.
Bo Bichette to hit a home run (+480)
Needless to say, this play correlates strongly with a big Blue Jays win. But even outside of that, oddsmakers are just plain underestimating Bichette’s power. +480 implies a win probability of only 17.2 percent. In 171 career major league games Bichette has 33 home runs, and 33/171 is 19.3 percent. But that’s without even factoring in the matchup, which is extremely favorable. In nine career at bats against Pivetta, Bichette has six hits.
Three of them for extra bases, including a home run. He clearly sees Pivetta pretty well. Pivetta has already given up five home runs to the Blue Jays in less than 17 innings of work against them this season. Bichette is also hot at the moment, as he racked up five hits and a home run over the last two games of Toronto’s weekend series against the Mets.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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