Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
The all-star break is officially a distant memory, and it’s been great to have full slates again. We have a nice big one on Saturday, and we have a fun AL matchup here as the Cleveland Indians host the Tampa Bay Rays. It should be a great one, broadcasted wide by FS1.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised showdown than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Tampa Bay Rays -3.5 (+225)
Under 8.5 (+172)
Parlay odds: +1194
We’ve got a simple two-leg parlay here, one which pays out just shy of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Tampa Bay Rays -3.5 (+225)
Everything is shaping up nicely for a big Rays win here. For starters, they’re just on fire at the moment. They’ve won 12 of their past 15 games. Tampa beat Cleveland by five on Friday, and they should be able to win by that many again here with the way their offense is hitting. Especially with J.C. Mejia on the mound for the Indians. The rookie has been a disaster through 11 appearances and eight starts, entering with a 7.53 ERA.
Over his last three outings, he’s given up a whopping 16 earned runs in just 11 innings. One of those outings was against the Rays, when he got tagged for six runs in less than three innings. Tampa won that game 8-1. The Rays won’t have a traditional starter here and are going with a bullpen game, which shouldn’t be a problem. They’ve got the second-lowest bullpen ERA of any team in MLB.
Under 8.5 (+172)
We get a huge odds boost by combining this alt total under with the Rays -3.5, when I don’t think it conflicts too much. That’s because I don’t see the Indians scoring much at all here. They’ve had one of the league’s weaker offenses all season, and have had plenty of games where they score only one or two runs. Against an elite Rays bullpen, they should struggle once again. For a bet to be profitable long-term at +1194 odds, it only needs to cash 7.7 percent of the time. I certainly think the odds are greater than 7.7 percent that we see something like 5-1 or 6-2 here.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.
