Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is approaching the all-star break, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We have a nice slate on Saturday, and we have a fun AL matchup as the Houston Astros host the New York Yankees. It should be a great one, broadcasted wide by FOX.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised showdown than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
I just cashed my fourth-most recent MLB SGP last Sunday at 10/1, and cashed a couple tries before that last week at 10/1 as well, let’s do it again on Saturday!
New York Yankees -2.5 (+240)
Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (+102)
Over 8.5 (-104)
Parlay odds: +1089
We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out just north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
New York Yankees -2.5 (+240)
The Yankees have been a moderate disappointment this season, but there are reasons for optimism. They have won four of their past five games, including the opener of this series by a score of 4-0. They aren’t going to be scared by this Astros team. Houston starter Zack Greinke has been shaky recently, and even though Gerrit Cole hasn’t been his absolute best lately he’s still Gerrit Cole.
Even with some bumps in the road, Cole still has a WHIP of just 0.96. The last time he faced the Astros back in May, he gave up only two runs in seven innings. It’s not like Houston has been dominant lately, as they’re a middling 7-7 over the past couple weeks. That span included series against the Orioles and Tigers. The Yankees also have a better bullpen than Houston does, so there are a lot of things working in their favor.
Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (+102)
Like I alluded to above, Cole hasn’t been his best lately, but oddsmakers have way overreacted. Cole is still one of the best pitchers in the entire game. Even though he’s struggled a bit over the past month or so and had a 4.65 ERA in June, Cole has still struck out at least seven batters in 11 of his 17 outings this year. As such, getting plus-money feels pretty generous here. In his most recent start when he got pummeled by the Mets and had to be yanked after only 3.1 innings, he still racked up six strikeouts and almost would’ve cashed this. This is a guy who struck out 326 batters in 212.0 innings in his last full season. Pitching against his old team, he should be going for as many as possible.
Over 8.5 (-104)
To wrap this same game parlay up, we are going with the over. The over correlates pretty strongly with the Yankees -2.5, but FanDuel isn’t making us pay a premium for it here. Both of these pitchers have been shaky lately, and both offenses have real upside. The Astros have been the best offense in the league for most of the season, and they lead MLB in OPS.
Cole has now given up nine earned runs over his past two starts. Five out of the last six times he’s taken the hill, there have been 11 total runs scored in the game. Greinke on the other hand has given up at least three earned runs in four of his past five. The last time he faced the Yankees, he got chased after only four innings. There have been at least nine total runs scored 12 of the past 14 times that Greinke has started.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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