Andrew Ortenberg
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The MLB season is back in full swing after the all-star break, and it’s been long enough for us to more or less know where things stand. We have a nice slate on Sunday, with the nightcap being this Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers. It should be a fun one, broadcasted wide by ESPN.
What better way to celebrate this nationally televised showdown than by betting a same game parlay? We also have thoughts on the side and total, which you can find out in our full game preview.
Milwaukee Mariners -3.5 (+360)
Brandon Woodruff over 7.5 strikeouts (-128)
Lance Lynn under 6.5 strikeouts (-104)
Parlay odds: +1192
We’ve got a three-leg parlay here, one which pays out just shy of 12/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down:
Milwaukee Mariners -3.5 (+360)
The Brewers have won each of the first two games of this series by at least four runs, I don’t see why they can’t do it again on Sunday. They have gone 5-2 since the break, and they’ve won those five games by a combined score of 39-12. That kind of offensive upside is exactly what you’re looking for when betting a team on an alt run line. Chicago is 35-17 at home this year, but just 23-23 on the road.
It also doesn’t hurt that the Brewers will have Brandon Woodruff on the mound. Woodruff has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, entering with a 2.04 ERA and minuscule 0.83 WHIP. He’s given up one earned run or fewer in 13 of his 19 starts this season. With the way he pitches, we’ll probably only need a handful of runs from the Brewers here to cover this -3.5.
Brandon Woodruff over 7.5 strikeouts (-128)
If the Brewers are going to cover -3.5, it almost certainly means Woodruff had a big game. It will be nearly impossible to do it if Woodruff isn’t dealing, so it makes a ton of sense to throw this in. He’s gotten to at least 8 strikeouts in 3 of this last 5 starts and 10 of 19 overall. Current White Sox hitters are just 1-for-20 in their careers against him. Chicago has scored just 4 total runs over their past 3 games, so their lineup clearly isn’t seeing the ball well at the moment.
Lance Lynn under 6.5 strikeouts (-104)
This play also correlates with the first two. Essentially all we need is one really good game from the Brewers, and we’re getting 12/1 odds. Lynn has only gotten to seven strikeouts in 7 of his 17 starts, so even without the correlation this has some standalone value. But for the Brewers to cover -3.5, they’re going to need to get to Lynn. Lynn has only topped six strikeouts once in his past five outings, and he’s been a much worse pitcher overall on the road this year. He’s been having a great season, but his ERA is almost a run and a half higher away from home.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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