Ricky Dimon
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It’s getaway day in Major League Baseball, with teams wrapping up series and getting ready to begin new ones on Friday. A relatively small 10-game slate includes eight afternoon contests, one of which is this showdown between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals. Let’s take a look at the best such option Braves-Nationals, and be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.
Nationals -1.5 (+170)
Ryan Zimmerman to record 2+ hits (+190)
Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+185)
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Ryan Zimmerman getting a couple of base knocks obviously goes well with a Washington win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Nationals -1.5 (+170)
Jon Lester made a good first impression with his new ballclub last week. The Nationals’ veteran lefty shut out the Marlins throug 5.0innings, throwing 70 pitches. He should be able to go a little further than that in his second outing of the season against a team he has historically dominated. Lester is 7-2 lifetime against the Braves, with most of those starts coming in his more recent stretch with the Cubs as opposed to his peak years with the Red Sox. That bodes well for his prospects on Thursday. Like Lester, Atlanta lefty Drew Smyly came to the National League East as a free agent this offseason. However, his first month of 2021 has been an unmitigated disaster. Smyly is off to a terrible start, giving up nine home runs in his first 19.0 innings and sitting at an ERA of 8.05 through four starts. Needless to say, the Nats have a great chance of winning this game by multiple runs.
Ryan Zimmerman to record 2+ hits (+190)
Speaking of guys past their prime, Zimmerman is 36 years old and opted out of the 2020 season. However, he still has at least something left in the tank—especially against left-handed pitchers. The right-handed Zimmerman has always been far better against southpaws, and nothing has changed in 2021. He is batting .360 against them, compared to .240 vs. righties. In 2019 his splits were .367 and .213; in 2018 they were .377 and .228. I could go on and one, but you get the point…. Zimmeman recorded a three-hit day last week against Toronto and another multi-hit effort may be in the cards here.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+185)
Although +185 is not exactly great value on anyone to hit a home run, this prop massively increases the parlay’s payout. It’s well worth the risk, especially on someone like Acuna. The National League Player of the Month in April is tied for the MLB lead in home runs (10) to go along with a .327 average and 21 RBIs. He is batting .389 against lefties so far this year, which suggests Lester could be in for a long day at the office while facing the hottest hitter in baseball.
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